FOREX Trading Australia – Foreign Exchange Market Summary
Dollar
- Dollar fell mildly as the market looks to adopt a neutral position ahead of Friday’s Payrolls outcome. Consumer Confidence index declined slightly due to fall in the expectations index but overall confidence levels are steady. Today’s Personal Consumption data is eyed with interest to gauge the strength of spending as the Fed has been concerned about it leading to its hawkish change of tone.
Euro
- The Euro remained above 1.29 but like the day before was unable to break above the 1.2955-70 resistance zone. Data was disappointing as in spite of the spike in oil prices French PPI rose slightly less than expected while the Business Climate Indicator was lower with domestic demand as well as export orders remaining on the weak side. It is likely to meet strong offers on any foray above 1.3025.
Yen
- The Yen continued to slump with this morning’s Industrial Production data declining more than expected due to a fall in export demand while domestic demand continues to remain on the soft side. It has declined on its crosses and looks poised for further losses. A decisive break above 108 could accelerate losses for the Yen.
Pound
- The Pound was the biggest mover of the day as it rallied strongly past 1.87 before stabilizing around 1.8750. Data suggested that the Housing market is definitely stabilizing and this coupled with pick up in other key sectors of the economy could alter MPC member’s line of thinking. Net mortgage lending rose as did the number of loans approved. For now, It is likely to meet strong offers on any foray above 1.8825
Australian Dollar
- The Australian dollar continues to hover around 0.77 and has found a decent base above the resistance zone of 0.7655-70. Most expect the RBA to hike rates again in their next meeting but there is a fair chance of them staying put, if that eventuates the Aussie is likely to go down towards its yearly lows around 0.75.
Economic Data Released
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Actual |
Outcome |
|
|
|
February PPI m/m |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
Slightly lower than expected as drop in common item prices offset high oil costs. |
|
|
|
March Consumer Confidence |
|
104 |
102.4 |
Has come lower than expected with fall in expectations as well as current conditions index. |
|
Upcoming Economic Releases
|
GMT |
Release |
Region |
Previous |
Forecast |
Expectation |
|
|
GFK Consumer Confidence Index |
|
4.8 |
4.8 |
It risks slipping lower as confidence has deteriorated of late on high oil prices & unemployment |
|
|
4Q F Personal Consumption |
|
4.2% |
4.3% |
Likely to be revised up as consumption remains robust. |
FOREX Technical Analysis
EUR/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.2880 and high was 1.2954.
The pair closed at 1.2935.
The pair has managed to stay above 1.29 but has failed to clear the resistance zone at 1.2955-70, a break above this mark leads us to the stiffer resistance around 1.3025-40. On the downside strong support exists around 1.2855, a break below could accelerate losses towards 1.2750-75 which is around the yearly lows and good buying interest is expected to crop up.
Key resistance is seen at 1.2975 followed by 1.3055 while support starts at 1.2855 followed by 1.2775.
USD/JPY – Yesterday’s low was 106.93 and high was 107.67.
The pair closed at 107.56.
Dollar broke through very strong offers around the 107.25-40 mark and is heading towards the 108 region. It is looking vulnerable on its crosses as well with strong Dollar bid interest on any correction back towards 106.50. This morning’s poor data adds further pressure on it and a decisive break past 108 could accelerate losses towards 109.
Key Resistance is seen at 107.85 followed by 108.40 while support starts at 107.05 followed by 106.50.
GBP/USD – Yesterday’s low was 1.8660 and high was 1.8765.
The pair closed at 1.8749.
An upside surprise in the data results has boosted it towards 1.8750 with mild resistance around 1.8775. Decent selling interest exists on a break above 1.88 while on the down side for now the Pound is deriving good support on any dips down towards 1.87 with a break below targeting the very strong support zone of 1.8625-40.
Key Resistance is seen at 1.8775 followed by 1.8855 while support starts at 1.8705 followed by 1.8625.
Australian Dollar
AUD/USD – Yesterday’s low was 0.7677 and high was 0.7749.
The pair closed at 0.7721.
The Aussie has followed other majors and risks going down towards 0.7650 as speculators have liquidated many long positions. Commodity prices have also eased and given the shift in sentiment it now faces resistance in the 0.7780-0.78 zone. It is likely to remain range bound till another breakout on other majors.
Key Resistance is seen at 0.7775 followed by 0.7855 while support starts at 0.7675 followed by 0.7645.
Kunal ‘Kris’ Sharma
Forex Analyst
Australian Financial Services License 246566
Easy-Forex makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products
