Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 06/11/2007

USD boosted by jobs data. ECB and BoE rate decision ahead.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –06 DECEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) rose for the first time during the week as buoyant data was released in the form of Jobs, Production, and Factory orders. The dollar also gained on trimmed bets by speculators who expected a 50 basis point cut next week. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was up by 46.53 points (+1.78%) whilst the Dow Jones was also up 196.23 points (1.48%). Crude oil initially rose in response to OPEC ministers electing to keep productions quotas unchanged. Oil rose by US$0.83 a barrel to US$87.49. Looking ahead, Jobless claims out of the U.S. are scheduled for release.

·The Euro (EUR) eased from its previous session following buoyant data out of the world’s largest economy, which prompted investors to trim calls for a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4605 and a high of 1.4770 before closing the day at 1.4719 in the New York session. The ECB is scheduled to make a rate announcement on Thursday following its two day meeting. Markets largely expect rates to be kept unchanged at 4%.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) ceased any further decline on moderate risk aversion, triggered by Moody’s Investors Service said MBIA Inc., the largest bond insurer, is “somewhat likely” to face a capital shortfall. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 109.72 and a high of 110.97 before closing the day at 110.65 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) fell to a six-week low versus the dollar as data showed U.K. services growth slowed, house prices fell for a third month in November and consumer confidence slipped the most in at least three years. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 2.0255 and a high of 2.0612 before closing the day at 2.0262 in the New York session. Plenty of focus surrounds the BoE interest rate announcement today, in which forecasts lie at rates being kept on hold 5.75%, although pockets of the market are bracing for a 25 basis point cut.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was weighed upon by poor GDP for the third quarter, whilst the RBA kept rates on hold followed by dovish comments. The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8662 and a high of 0.8744 before closing the day at 0.8708 in the New York session.

·Gold (XAU) eased on a broadly stronger dollar. XAU traded with a low 791.90 and a high of 806.70.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4620

Initial support at 1.4617 (Nov 19 low) followed by 1.4602 (61.8% retracement of the 1.4010 to 1.4968 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Nov 28 high) followed by 1.4908 (Nov 27 high).

·Yen – 111.00

Initial support is located at 109.48 (Nov 28 low) followed by 108.27 (Nov 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 111.33 (38.2% retracement of the 117.95 to 107.23 decline) followed by 111.14 (Nov 14 high)

·Pound – 2.0290

Initial support at 2.0534 (Nov 30 low) followed by 2.0519 (Nov 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0833 (Nov 28 high) followed by 2.0846 (Nov 14 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.8725

Initial support a 0.8776 (Nov 29 low) followed by 0.8720 (Nov 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8921 (Nov 28 high) followed by 0.8939 (38.2% retracement of the 0.9400 to 0.8654 decline)

·Gold – 796.20

Initial support at 778.90 (Nov 30 low) followed by 773.0 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 808.05 (Nov 29 high) followed by 815.70 (November 27 high)