Holiday Trading Takes Over
Last week’s currency trading review
The Dollar consolidated against most currencies as the recent USD rally faded into Christmas. Economic Data was mixed with Q3 GDP being revised to 2.2% vs. 2.8% whilst Existing home sales gained 7% in November. Weekly Unemployment Claims fell to 452k vs. 480k previously but this was offset by New Homes sales slumping over 10% in November. The Euro tested the downside before rebounding into Christmas with strong commodities and improving risk appetite. The market is still focusing on Greece and other weaker European nations which are in danger of Sovereign Debt rating downgrades. The EUR/USD gained 0.33% closing at 1.4378, after opening the week at 1.4331.
The Japanese Yen saw widespread weakness as the Nikkei continued to rally and the Yen carry trade spurred back into action. CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY all enjoyed solid gains. The USD/JPY gained 1.18% closing at 91.53 after opening the week at 90.45. The GBP underperformed most currencies as cable slipped below the key 1.6000 level and GDP failed to inspire. Q3 GDP was revised to -0.2% from -0.3%. GBP/USD fell -1.23% closing at 1.5963 after opening at 1.6159. The AUD closed well above lows but was under considerable pressure as the market scaled back expectations of aggressive rate hikes in 2010. Also hurting the Aussie is the continued weakness seen in Gold which fell below $1100 and has fallen over $100 an ounce in the past 2 weeks. The AUD/USD fell -0.82% closing at 0.8826 after opening at 0.8898.
The forex trading week preview
In the States On Tuesday, October C& S house prices are forecast at -7.3% vs. -9.36% y/y. Also released, December Consumer Confidence forecast at 53 vs. 49.5 previously. On Wednesday, Chicago PMI forecast at 55.1 vs. 56.1 previously. On Thursday, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 463k vs. 452k previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone On Tuesday, December German Preliminary CPI is forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.4% previously. In the UK On Thursday, December Nationwide HPI forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.5%. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan no data this week. In Australia Monday and Friday bank holiday’s.. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4218 |
1.4324 |
1.4385 |
1.4436 |
1.4481 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.16 |
91.00 |
91.60 |
91.87 |
92.32 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5903 |
1.5922 |
1.6005 |
1.6023 |
1.6100 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8735 |
0.8783 |
0.8875 |
0.8925 |
0.9011 |
|
XAU/USD |
1074.00 |
1095 |
1106.00 |
1119 |
1141.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
75.00 |
78.00 |
78.70 |
80.00 |
82.00 |
Euro – 1.4385
Initial support at 1.4324 (Dec 24 low) followed by 1.4218 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4436 (23.6% retrace of 1.5141 – 1.4218) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 former low)
Yen – 91.60
Initial support is located at 91.00 (Dec 22 low) followed by 90.16 (Dec 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.87 (Dec 22 high) followed by 92.32 (Oct 27 High).
Pound – 1.6005
Initial support at 1.5922 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6023 (Dec 25 high) followed by 1.6100 (Dec 22 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8875
Initial support at 0.8786 (Dec 24 low) followed by the 0.8735 (Dec 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8925 (Dec 21 high) followed by 0.9011 (Dec 17 high).
Gold – 1106
Initial support at 1095 (Dec 24 low) followed by 1074 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1119 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1141 (Dec 17 high) .
Oil – 78.70
Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 75.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 82.00 (November High).
