Daily Outlook 6th October 2010

October 6, 2010

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a major global equity rally sparked by the cutting of Japan&rsquo s interest rates accelerated during the New York session after the release of strong US economic data. September ISM Services 53.2 vs. 51.5 previously. In US stocks, DJIA -78 points closing at 10751, S&amp P -9 points closing at 1135 and NASDAQ -36 points closing at 2344. Looking ahead, September ADP Private Employment forecast at 24k vs. -10k previously.

The Euro (EUR) surged higher after dipping in the Asian session to break fresh multi-month highs above 1.3850. August Retail Sales fell -0.4% vs. 0.1% previously but were overlooked. The US QE2 story is getting recycled daily and adding to upside momentum. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3636 and a high of 1.3861 before closing at 1.3850. Looking ahead, Q2 GDP Final is forecast at 1% vs. 1% previously. August German Industrial Orders is forecast at 0.8% vs. -2.2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold initially in the Asian session after the Bank of Japan cut rates to 0-0.1% and the expansion of QE by 5trillion Yen. Europe was less than impressed however and traders their pushed the major back down for a test of Y83 which held firm on the first attempt. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 82.94 and a high of 84.01 before closing the day around 83.20 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied on USD weakness but failed to keep up with the Euro which pushed past 0.8700 on the EUR/GBP once again. September PMI services improved as expected to 52.8 vs. 51 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5750 and a high of 1.5933 before closing the day at 1.5880 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell sharply after the RBA held interest rates at 4.5% counter to expectations of a 0.25% rate hike. August retail sales rose 0.3% vs. 0.4% forecast as well and the Aussie tested day lows of 0.9540 in Europe. When Support was found and stocks extended gains the Aussie turned aggressively bullish and closed above 0.9700. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9540 and a high of 0.9728 before closing the US session at 0.9720.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) popped higher in the US session shooting quickly to fresh record highs above $1340. Overall trading with a low of USD$1312 and high of USD $1342 before ending the New York session at USD$1340 an ounce. Oil resumed its rally on improving investor confidence. WTI Oil Closed +$1.05 at $82.55 a barrel.

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