Daily Outlook 5th October 2010

October 5, 2010

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks were heavy overnight with traders taking profit ahead of a big week of important data. August Factory orders fell -0.5% vs. -0.4% previously. August Home Sales rallied 4.3% in August but analysts are quick to note the 30% drop in May/June. In US stocks, DJIA -78 points closing at 10751, S&amp P -9 points closing at 1135 and NASDAQ -36 points closing at 2344. Looking ahead, September ISM Services forecast at 52 vs. 51.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro jumped at the Asian open before falling steadily for the rest of the day on a combination of weak US stocks and Eurozone Austerity concerns. October Sentix gained to 8.8 vs. 7.6 previously. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3665 and a high of 1.3810 before closing at 1.3680. Looking ahead, August Retail Sales are forecast at 0.2% vs. 1.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) little action was seen on the major with focus instead on crosses. The BOJ meet today and the market is very keen to see if the Central bank expands easing measures or comments on the strong Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.19 and a high of 83.89 before closing the day around 83.45 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ forecast to hold at 0.1%.

The Sterling (GBP) did well as crosses gained and the market responded to improvement in the UK PMI Construction survey to 53.8 in September. EUR/GBP fell from multi-month highs above 0.8700. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5747 and a high of 1.5872 before closing the day at 1.5820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Services PMI forecast at 51 vs. 51.3 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under mild selling pressure for most of the day as the market pared back gains before today&rsquo s RBA rate meeting. With Sydney away on bank holiday yesterday the Asian open and reaction to key economic data today may set the mood for the rest of the week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9651 and a high of 0.9737 before closing the US session at 0.9680. Looking ahead, RBA forecast to raise rates to 4.75% vs. 4.5% previously. August Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.7% previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) failed to breach $1320 and eased back on profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1311 and high of USD $1320 before ending the New York session at USD$1314 an ounce. Oil rallied before easing back to opening levels. WTI Oil Closed +$0.10 at $81.50 a barrel.

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