Daily Outlook 18th October 2010

October 18, 2010

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) slipped further on Friday, before pairing some losses late on in the US session. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke did little to aid in the USD recovery. In his speech on Friday Bernanke did indicate that further quantitative easing would eventuate, by saying &ldquo There would appear to be a case for further easing&rdquo . The USD was sold aggressively across the board as the Fed Chairman began his speech, yet Majors failed to sustain those gains as Equity markets ended mixed, not aided by Bank of America falling 4.9%. The Dow Jones ended the day down -31.79 (-0.29%), S&amp P +0.58%, and the NASDAQ up 0.07%. On the data front, Retail Sales for September rose by 0.6% better than expected 0.4%, whilst CPI rose by a meager 0.1%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment eased to 67.9 from 68.2 in October.

The Euro (EUR) traded at fresh 9 month highs shortly after Fed Chairman speech, which indicated further easing was imminent. In domestic news, EZ CPI was released on expectations of 1.8% to little effect. The EURUSD traded with a low of 1.3938 a high of 1.4157 before closing the day 1.3969.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded at 15 year highs for the second successive day against the USD. On the domestic front, Production fell by -0.5% for the month of August. The USDJPY traded at a low of 80.90 and a high of 81.62 before closing the day at

The Sterling (GBP) in similar fashion to other majors, spiked higher against the dollar. The Pound has continued to maintain it handle above 1.6000 of late, and Friday was no different as late session selling ensured the GBP closed below that level. The GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.5975 and a high of 1.6104 before closing the day at 1.5984.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) finally broke above the parity mark for the first time in its 28 year, post float history. The Aussie traded above the mark, albeit it briefly, as Bernanke fuelled easing speculation. Yet selling was pronounced as the level remains a psychological barrier. The reluctance for the AUD to break clearly above, might be a point of concern. Added, Treasurer Wayne Swann warned over the weekend that intervention may be a tool to curb the strength in the AUD. Such comments could have been attributed to the AUD beginning the Asian session on a weak footing Monday, trading below Friday&rsquo s lows The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9864, a high of 1.0003 before closing the day at 0.9878.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) XAU in similar fashion, traded within $2 of record highs shortly after Bernanke comments, before selling off more than $25 to trade as low as $1,357.60 before ending at $1.370.50. XAU finished the week up by 2% overall. Oil too fell on Friday, as OPEC left quotas unchanged. Crude Oil fell by $US1.44 a barrel to trade at US$81.25

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