Daily outlook – 13th January 2011 (00:30GMT)

January 13, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks and commodities surged putting the USD on the back foot and risk back on around the world. The FED Beige book showed positive signs with all districts showing improvement in the US. In US stocks, DJIA +83 points closing at 11755, S&amp P +11 points closing at 1286 and NASDAQ +20 points closing at 2737. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 405k vs. 409k previously. Also released, November Trade Balance forecast at -40.5bn vs. -38.7bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) The Euro recovered above 1.3000 and extended gains on easing Bond yields after good demand for Portuguese bonds overnight. Economic Data was also good with German GDP seen at 3.6%y/y in 2010 and November EU Industrial Production at 1.2% vs. 0.5% forecast. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2961 and a high of 1.3146 before closing at 1.3125. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Decision forecast to remain at 1.0% and speech from President Trichet.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major was supported from strong Crosses with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY leading the market higher in buoyant trade. The Y83.50 to Y82.80 range has been holding for a week now with the market hesitant to pick direction. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 82.80 and a high of 83.48 before closing the day around 83.05 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) weak November Trade Balance data at -8.7bn m/m a new record was shrugged off with the market tracking the Euro to fresh week highs above 1.5750. &nbsp Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5581 and a high of 1.5783 before closing the day at 1.5755 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC Rate Decision forecast to hold at 0.5%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as shorts where squeezed and flooding was not as bad as forecast in the countries third biggest city. The weak USD and strong risk on environment made the Aussie the best performer in 2010 and should remain strong if the same conditions remain this year. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9818 and a high of 0.9969 before closing the US session at 0.9950.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) continue to trend upwards testing $1390 in quiet trade. Overall trading with a low of USD$1376 and high of USD $1389 before ending the New York session at USD$1385 an ounce. Crude was very strong pushing above $92 a barrel before settling just under the figure. WTI Oil Closed +$0.70 at $91.90 a barrel.

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