Daily outlook – 15th April 2011 (00:30GMT)

April 15, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Weekly Jobless Claims misses with a jump to 412k vs. 380k forecast. Reaction was muted with stocks being bought up on the dip to finish roughly unchanged and this was the story with the USD which closed against most pairs unchanged. In US stocks, DJIA +14 points closing at 12285, S&amp P +0 points closing at 1314 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2760. Looking ahead, March CPI forecast at 0.5% m/m. Also released, April UoM Consumer Sentiment forecast at 68.5 vs. 67.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) dipped sharply in Europe on Greek Debt restructuring fears with the talk of a 50% haircut spooking investors. The market found support on denials of such a plan and reclaimed the 1.4500 level in the US session. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4364 and a high of 1.4516 before closing the day around 1.4490 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Inflation forecast at 1.3% vs. 0.4% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) hit day lows after the weak weekly jobless claims testing Y83. The level saw good support and the major bounced with crosses back to more familiar levels at Y83.50 and Y121. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.94 and a high of 83.85 before closing the day around 83.50 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) EUR/GBP selling supported the Cable and allowed the pair to finish at 1.6350 up from 1.6250 opening levels. GBP/JPY was more volatile but is finding support on dips after consolidating recent gains. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6252 and a high of 1.6388 before closing the day at 1.6350 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher in to the mid 1.0500 level in striking distance of all time highs at 1.0580. AUD/JPY is still the most important cross tracking global stocks up and down. US Data will in focus tonight as traders try to judge the strength of the US recovery. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0456 and a high of 1.0553 before closing the day at 1.0540 in the New York session

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) pushed back to all time highs and hit fresh all time highs in late US trade near $1480 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$1452 and high of USD $1478 before ending the New York session at USD$1477 an ounce. Pushed higher after finding support at $106 for the third day. WTI Oil Closed +$1.20 at $108.30 a barrel.

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