Daily outlook – 20th May 2011 (00:30GMT)

May 20, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) wind was taken out of the risk rallies sail last night after mixed US data. Weekly Jobless Claims were positive falling to 409k vs. 438k previously. Existing homes sales fell -0.8% to 5.05m in April. May Philly Fed Index fell sharply to 3.9 vs. 18.5 previously in a concerning deterioration of business sentiment. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 12605, S&amp P +2 points closing at 1343 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2823.

The Euro (EUR) Rallied above 1.4300 in Asia before dipping in Europe. The selling proved short-lived and with weak US data traders pushed and closed on a strong footing above 1.4300. The outlook for the Euro is mixed with the Greece debt issue still unresolved. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4205 and a high of 1.4338 before closing the day around 1.4315 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April PPI April 0.5% vs. 04% m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major broke above Y82 with positive momentum after the weekly jobless claims. The gains reversed later on though after weaker US data releases. Yen Crosses all edged higher even with commodities under pressure. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.45 and a high of 82.24 before closing the day around 81.65 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) did well outperform on strong April retail sales at 1.2% vs. 0.8% forecast. GBP/JPY tested Y133 and other crosses found support. Traders have been eager sellers of the GBP recently on fears of stagflation in the UK economy in H2 2011. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6129 and a high of 1.6245 before closing the day at 1.6230 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) grinded higher with the other majors ignoring the drop in commodities but the prices action was very subdued. AUD/JPY did well above Y87 and closed above the key level looking for more upside. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0567 and a high of 1.0667 before closing the day at 1.0655 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold failed at $1500 and pulled back under $1490 briefly in quiet trade. Overall trading with a low of USD$1486 and high of USD $1500 before ending the New York session at USD$1495 an ounce. Oil slipped back below $100 a barrel on profit taking weakness. WTI Oil Closed -$1.66 at $98.40 a barrel.

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