Daily outlook – 16th June 2011 (00:30GMT)

June 16, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) the negativity accelerated around the world with Protests in Greece turning Violent and the Greek PM offering to resign. US Stocks fell aggressively and US Data stunned to the downside. June NY FED dropped to -8 vs. 12 previously. In US stocks, DJIA -178 &nbsp points closing at 11897, S&amp P -22 points closing at 1265 and NASDAQ -47 points closing at 2631. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 420k vs. 427k previously. Also released, May Philly Fed forecast at 6.8 vs. 3.9 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the riots in Greece combined with news Moody&rsquo s placed three major French Banks for possible downgrade review. Support at 1.4400 broke quickly and the pair continued to plummet to fresh month lows under 1.4200. April Industrial Production rose 0.2% m/m as expected. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4155 and a high of 1.4439 before closing the day around 1.4190 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May CPI forecast at 2.6% vs. 2.6% previously m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the major moved higher as the USD outperformed on safe have flows. The yen did strengthen against risk currencies though with EUR/JPY breaking below the key Y115 level and NZD/JPY sharply back to Y65. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 80.37 and a high of 81.07 before closing the day around 80.90 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was under heavy pressure on risk aversion and weak May Jobs data. UK May Claimant Count at +19.6k vs. 7k expected. EUR/GBP broke lower and this did provide support for Cable which found a base under 1.6200. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6168 and a high of 1.6379 before closing the day at 1.6190 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Retail Sales forecast at -0.6% vs. 1.1% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong in the Asian session when RBA governor spoke hawkishly about the chance of rate hikes if the July CPI data was above the bank&rsquo s target rate. This was reversed in the stock slump and Euro crash later in the day but losses were limited so far. AUD/NZD fared better rallying on weak milk prices. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0534 and a high of 1.0716 before closing the day at 1.0575 in the New York session.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) was well supported on sovereign default fears testing above $1530. Overall trading with a low of USD$1513 and high of USD $1535 before ending the New York session at USD$1529 an ounce. Oil crash breaking key support at $98 and continuing to test $95 by the end of the day. WTI Oil Closed -4.30 at $95.30 a barrel.

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