Daily outlook – 18th July 2011 (00:30GMT)

July 18, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) data was weak with June CPI falling -0.2% vs. -0.1% previously and July UoM Consumer Sentiment falling to 63.8 vs. 71.5 previously. The European Bank stress tests dominated the European session but generated little market movement with exhaustion setting in ahead of the weekend. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 12479, S&amp P +7 points closing at 1316 and NASDAQ +27 points closing at 2789. Looking ahead, July NAHB Housing Market Index forecast at 14 vs. 13 previously.

The Euro (EUR) was contained to the 1.4100 figure with the EU Bank stress test showing 8 failing banks being countered by the passing of the Italian Austerity budget. Ongoing concerns about the future of Greece and the EU as a whole is putting a negative tinge to the Euro with traders cautious to call an end to the saga. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3949 and a high of 1.4192 before closing the day around 1.4139 in the New York session.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market went to sleep Friday in a 20 pip range from Y79 to Y79.20. Crosses were also stable with the EUR/JPY pivoting the Y112 level after hitting lows under Y110 during the week. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 78.87 and a high of 79.27 before closing the day around 79.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday Monday.

The Sterling (GBP) held onto the 1.6100 level but was unable to move higher with the Negative US data and subdued trading on Friday. EUR/GBP is under 0.8800 and could fall further with much of the Pound weakness already priced in and Euro issues still unfolding. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6075 and a high of 1.6174 before closing the day at 1.6130 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie was punched lower in European trade on the negative sentiment as Moody&amp rsquo s put the US Rating on negative watch. The US session saw modest stock gains however and the AUD stabilized in the low 1.0600 region. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0617 and a high of 1.0745 before closing the day at 1.0650 in the New York session. UPDATE Q2 New Zealand CPI is strong at 5.3% vs. 4.5% forecast.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold came under profit taking pressure before rebounding back above $1590 to close at record highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1575 and high of USD $1593 before ending the New York session at USD$1593 an ounce. Rallied hard after pulling back on Thursday to reclaim $97 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed +$1.55 at $97.25 a barrel.

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