Daily outlook – 18th August 2011 (00:30GMT)

August 18, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) most markets remained quiet overnight with the highlight the Swiss national bank&rsquo s lack of Currency intervention which sent EUR/CHF from 115 to 112. Stocks in the US ended unchanged with an early rally pared back into the close. In US stocks on Friday, DJIA +4 points closing at 11410, S&amp P +1 points closing at 1193 and NASDAQ -11 points closing at 2511. Looking ahead, August Philly FED forecast at 3.7 vs. 3.2 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro fell to 1.4350 on sharp EUR/CHF selling post SNB but then found support to continue its rally for another day to 1.4500. The Euro failed to hold onto these gains though and pulled back into the US close. July CPI dropped further to 1.3% vs. 1.6% previously and takes pressure off the ECB to raise rates.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY refused to move out of the stranglehold of the recent 5 trading days with only the crosses showing signs of life. AUD/JPY tested Y81 and EUR/JPY tested Y111 but was able to break these resistances and fell back with US stocks into the close. The BOJ Governor Noda continues to comment daily that the central bank will intervene if the currency moves too quickly.

The Sterling (GBP) was the most volatile currency in the market after spiking lower on the BOE Minutes which showed a change to 9-0 with the 2 members calling for rate hikes in recent months changing their decisions to a hold. The market bought aggressively on the dip however and surged to week highs above 1.6500. Looking ahead, July Retail Sales forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.7% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the Aussie extended gains to test 1.0600 before easing into the close. Strong commodities and improving risk appetite is providing a supportive underpin for the Aussie which is a favorite of traders who track stock markets.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold is grinding higher as investment demand overwhelmed profit takers. It has been the perfect environment for the precious metal lately with a weak USD and sovereign debt crisis. Crude Oil surged higher but found resistance at $89 and pulled back to the familiar $87 level.

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