Daily outlook – 30th September 2011 (00:30GMT)

September 30, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) Stocks finished up but well off highs in another volatile day of trading. The USD was weaker with the risk on trade losing ground against commodities and most majors. Weekly jobless claims fell to 391k vs. 423k previously. In US stocks, DJIA +143 points closing at 11154, S&amp P +9 points closing at 1160 and NASDAQ -10 points closing at 2480. Looking ahead, September Chicago PMI forecast at 55.5 vs. 56.5 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro hit day highs after the passing of the ESFS vote from Germany by a large majority but the market sold after this event with uncertainty still remaining. Support was found though on the dip below 1.3600 at a higher low than Wednesday. September German Unemployment Change at -26k vs. -8k forecast. Looking ahead, August Retail Sales forecast at -0.5% vs. 0.0% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY tested Y77 briefly in the European session before reversing with stock markets and crosses. The market seems unlikely to break its recent range with 90% of the price action between Y76.50-Y77 over the last month. A catalyst for the break could be BOJ intervention or QE3 on the USD side.

The Sterling (GBP) tested above 1.5700 before reversing later in the day back to more familiar levels at 1.5600. The outlook is mixed with the chance of BOE expanding QE in the UK hurting whilst EUR/GBP selling is supporting.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was under pressure in Early Asia testing 0.9700 before reversing aggressively for a large rally back above 0.9800 and topping out above 0.9870 with the height of the Euro strength. The US session saw more selling however with the market remaining volatile.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold crept above $1600 to $1630 before consolidating inside that range for the rest of the day. Improving sentiment in Asia and Europe helped lift Crude Oil from the $80 level to test above $83 in the US session.

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