Daily outlook – 13th October 2011 – 00:30GMT

October 13, 2011

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market began a major rally in Europe overnight as the EU Commission President Barroso presented a roadmap to solve the European Debt Crisis. This combined with news Slovakia has agreed to approve the EFSF. The FOMC minutes overnight also supported with the 3 noted dissenters of more QE been countered by two members asking for more QE. Also supporting was talk that QE3 could be kept in reserve for next year if needed. In US stocks, DJIA +102 points closing at 11518, S&amp P +11 points closing at 1207 and NASDAQ +21 points closing at 2604. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 405k vs. 401k previously.

The Euro (EUR) broke 1.3700 and quickly shot above 1.3800 in Europe as the roadmap was release and investor risk appetite improved. August Industrial Production gained 1.2% vs. -0.7% forecast and also added to the positive feel overnight. Looking ahead, German CPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY was another big mover last night finally breaking out of the range to the topside above Y77. The talk in the market that Japan will ask the G20 to allow them to put a floor under the USD/JPY in a move reminiscent of the SNB and the EUR/CHF floor earlier this year. Yen Crosses all moved aggressively higher led by AUD/JPY.

The Sterling (GBP) some weak economic data was ignored overnight with the major rally in stocks and the ECB allowing the GBP/USD to move higher. The September Unemployment rate gained to 8.1% vs. 7.9% previously. Looking ahead, August Trade Balance forecast at -8.8bn vs. -8.9bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the best performing currency in the market overnight with the risk on rally and AUD/JPY buying pushing the major above 1.0000. Large stops sent the AUD/USD to 1.0200 by the US session in one of the biggest moves the AUD/USD has seen in recent months. Looking ahead, September Unemployment Rate forecast at 5.3% vs. 5.3% previously. Employment Change forecast at 10k vs. -9.7k previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) gold hit new month highs above $1690 but fell back into the close on profit taking. Crude Oil failed at $86.50 and fell back to $85 in a mixed day of trading that disappointed bulls given the large moves higher in other risk assets.

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