Daily outlook – 20th April 2012 (00:30GMT)

April 20, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the eagerly awaited Spanish Bond auction went off without major drama but the subsequent rally was short-lived as rumors swept the market that France was about to be downgraded. This was quickly discounted and we saw the Euro once again close above 1.3100 well supported. Looking ahead, Canadian March Core CPI forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.4% m/m.

The Euro (EUR) the false rumor of a French downgrade was on the back of a Citibank research note and once this was found out the market then went back to buying and is more likely to test 1.3200 then 1.3000 in coming sessions.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY was well supported grinding higher as the BOJ continues to talk down the Yen and comment to the market with new aggressive easy measures are being considered. EUR/JPY is back above Y107 and has bounced 200 pips in the last few days.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD consolidated the move above 1.6000 and this is good technically for the bulls hoping to push higher still. A close this week above the level will help the GBP/USD rally toward 1.6200 in the short term. Looking ahead, April German Business IFO forecast at 109.5 vs. 109.8 previously. Also ahead, UK March Retail Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.8% m/m.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is the most range bound currency pair in the market this week which is very unusual for the risk currency. The AUD/JPY is supporting and grinding higher towards Y85 level.

Oil & Gold (XAU) new week lows overnight reversed overnight with a large rally back to $1650 before settling back to opening levels. OIL/USD fell down to $102 before rallying to the close strong sitting just above $103.

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