Currency Updates:
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD was sold post FOMC overnight with the maintaining its easy monetary policy with a slight upgrade to forecasts. Overall the FOMC meeting was very supportive for markets and weak for the USD going forward. Fridays Q1 US GDP report will be critical for the US recovery story and the Global stock market rally waiting for clearer information on the health of the US economy. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 375k vs. 386k previously. March Pending Home Sales are forecast at 1% vs. 0.5% previously.
The Euro (EUR) the Euro is once again back above 1.3200 and is looking to test recent resistance near 1.3250 as stock markets rally and the fear over Eurozone debt markets resides for now. The market is looking to ECB President Draghi’s speech tonight to contrast the European central bank’s outlook with the those of the US.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY eased post FOMC down to Y81.10 from Y81.50 but is well supported from crosses and expectations the BOJ will announce fresh monetary easing measures. The BOJ decision is due tomorrow in the Asian session afternoon and the Government has been pressing the BOJ publicly to do something.
The Sterling (GBP) fresh GBP/USD buying saw 1.6180 tested a few more times with the level yet to break but most seeing more gains as the uptrend continues. The EUR/GBP is struggling to make fresh lows as the EUR/USD plays catch up but we shall see in coming days whether 0.8200 can be reclaimed or 0.8150 will be retested. Also ahead, April CBI Distributive Trades forecast at -4 vs. 0 previously.
Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD is rallying with global stocks and is ignoring the looming rate cut coming next Tuesday to once again be well supported. Resistance is seen at 1.0400 and 1.0450 if the rally was to continue tonight. The AUD/NZD cross fell today after the RBNZ held at 2.5% and kept a hawkish outlook in contrast to other central banks. Looking ahead, BOJ Rate meeting tomorrow forecast to hold rates at 0.1%.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold fell sharply then rallied even more sharply last night back above $1640 and is testing $1650 in Asian trade Thursday. OIL/USD pushed higher with stock markets and is expected to test $105 again in coming sessions.
