Daily outlook – 20th July 2012 (00:30GMT)

July 20, 2012

Currency Updates:

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the EUR/USD tested resistance above 1.2300 but once again failed to track US stocks higher. The USD lost further ground against other risk currencies with the AUD/USD leading the market higher. Oil in particular is soaring up another $3 a barrel. Looking ahead, No US Data tonight.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro is continuing to be sold on the crosses with fresh lows on the EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP overnight capping the EUR/GBP rally attempts. The Outlook is for timid trading while the Eurozone countries vote on the Spanish bailout. Overnight the German government passed it bill supporting the bailout.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY has fallen back to Y79.50 with the daily pressure from USD weakness trumping the Yen cross buying support. The biggest cross is the EUR/JPY which is failing to hold gains and make traction and this is causing GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY to tread water as well.

The Sterling (GBP) EUR/GBP broke below 0.78000 overnight and this supported the GBP/USD move back above 1.5700 where we have held for most of Asian trading on Friday. The Outlook is for more gains if the positive risk mood remains. Looking ahead, June German PPI forecast at -0.2% vs. -0.3% previously.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD broke 1.4000 yesterday and pushed up to 1.0450 with commodities and strong global stocks supporting the Asian commodity currency. The weak jobs data last week and mixed Chinese signals have been brushed aside with the strong demand via EUR/AUD selling the main driver.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold is showing some two way action with support at $1575 and resistance at $1585. OIL/USD showed no letup accelerating gains up to $93 overnight with sellers getting steamrolled in recent sessions.

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