Investors moving to euro; dropping yen

April 10, 2013

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Currency Updates:

The euro (EUR) is moving higher against the US dollar, having touched 1.3067 before correcting somewhat to 1.3045. The pair is gaining ground and is affected by continued confirmation from the Fed that quantitative easing will continue for some time as Chairman Bernanke affirmed that “economic conditions aren’t where we’d like them to be”. At the same time the European Central bank is reducing its balance sheet withdrawing liquidity from European markets.

  • The Australian dollar (AUD) is pushing higher against the US dollar (USD) moving above 1.0431 as Australia aims at yet another bold move in liberalizing trade with China whose currency will be exchangeable to Australian dollars, helping push Australian exports further.
  • The US 500 (SPI) spiked yesterday moving above 1560 as investor’s price in higher earnings for US equities. The index could continue into higher highs as better data is released from the US jobless recovery.
  • Weekly option volatilities for the EURUSD dropped further to 8.35 as fear in the markets subsides and option premiums on the pair move lower.

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Movers & Shakers

EURJPY

The euro (EUR) rose to the highest point against the Japanese yen (JPY) as the pair moved to a four year high above 129.50. The expansionary monetary base in Japan has brought about a quest for yield from Japanese investors looking for higher returns in European bonds. This trend is expected to continue as the Bank of Japan goes on with 1% asset purchases per month for the next two years.

Calendar

CHF – Swiss CPI m/m at 07:15 (GMT) Forecast 0.3%

GBP – Manufacturing Production m/m at 08:30(GMT) Forecast 0.4%

CAD – Building Permit m/m at 12:30(GMT) Forecast 3.7%

Outlook

EURUSD Pivot Point 1.2985 with a preference to go LONG at 1.2985.

Sentiment is 42% of deals to buy EUR

USDJPY Pivot Point 98.00 with a preference to go LONG at 98.00.

Sentiment is 46% of deals to buy USD

GBPUSD Pivot Point 1.5360 with a preference to go SHORT at 1.5360.

Sentiment is 52% of deals to buy GBP

AUDUSD Pivot Point 1.0395 with a preference to go LONG at 1.0395.

Sentiment is 54% of deals to buy AUD

GOLD Pivot Point 1560 with a preference to go LONG at 1560.

Sentiment is 72% of deals to buy GOLD

OIL Pivot Point 93.75 with a preference to go SHORT at 93.75.

Sentiment is 61% of deals to buy OIL

US 500 Pivot Point 1544 with a preference to go LONG at 1544.

Sentiment is 24% to buy US 500

UK 100 Pivot Point 6280 with a preference to go SHORT at 6280.

Sentiment is 20% to buy UK 100

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