Easy-Forex outlook

The Australian Dollar (AUD): AUD/USD drove up to 0.9045 in early European session bouncing off from intital support of 0.8990. However, it was unable to make further gains and dropped back towards 0.9030 into NY’s open. This morning, the FOMC minutes announced to continue tapering and AUD/USD hit back to low 0.90s as US yield lifted. Range trading through out yesterday 0.8990 – 0.9050, market will be focusing on China’s Feb HSBC PMI today.

AUD/USD: The pair broke the 10DMA and the daily cloud base of 0.8981 was challenged. The doji on 18th of Feb showed a downside move and was followed through out the next day, keeping the bulls worried. A break of 0.8970 would help bears gain more confidence and more likely 0.8905 (key support) be tested.

EUR/USD: The daily chart showed a doji forming near the Jan high, RSI diverging and spread narrowing will make bulls panic. Short term resistance at 1.3775 and support near 1.3675 (cloud top, 10DMA, 2/14 low). A break through it would lead to correction from recent rally.

GBP/USD: Cable remain weak as UK jobs data showed an increase to 7.2% (previous 7.1%). Initial support at 1.6670 & 1.6630. Pivot at 1.6735.

USD/JPY: USD/JPY continued its range trading of 101.80 -102.80. Data before the FOMC statement did not help the Dollar to make further gains but the relatively hawkish statement from FOMC boosted the pair above 102. 102.80 is yet to be tested, main focus in Asia session will be on how the Nikkei react to the statement, a break above 102.85 will break the range and start a new bull trend.

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 JP Foreign bond investment w/e -617.2b-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign invest JP stock w/e -76.4b-prev
• 23:50 JP Exports yy Jan f/c 12.60%, 15.30%-prev
• 23:50 JP Imports yy Jan f/c 21.80%, 24.70%-prev
• 23:50 JP Trade balance total yen Jan f/c -2489.0b, -1302.1b-prev
• 21:45 NZ Producer prices – inputs qtr/qtr Q4 2.20%-prev
• 21:45 NZ Producer prices – outputs Q4 2.40%-prev
• 01:45 CH HSBC Mfg PMI flash Feb 49.6-prev-prev

Technical Analysis

AUD/JPY 19/02/2014 19:00 1 week Trend: (=) 1 month Trend: (=) AUD/JPY Intraday: bullish bias above 91.85. Pivot: 91.85 Our preference: Long positions above 91.85 with targets @ 92.95 & 93.8 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 91.85 look for further downside with 91.1 & 90.85 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias. Supports and resistances: 94.1 93.8 92.95 92.4443 Last 91.85 91.1 90.85 Ticker : AUDJPY Add to my portfolio

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