Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Risk sentiments from Russia/Crimea tensions increased pressure on AUD’s post capital expenditure data which drove the pair down to a low of 0.8903. AUD/USD then bounced back up, as talk of exporter bids in the 0.8880/0.8900 zone and had the pair rallied up near 0.8930 into NY open. Rally continued as Yellen’s testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee was considered dovish, lifting the AUD further up.
AUD/USD: Hourly resistance near 0.8970/75 and next level at 0.90. Overall sentiment is still a downtrend but due to USD weakness, we could see further range trading sessions from this pair. A break of 0.8880/0.89 would create second push for the pair.
EUR/USD: The pair was crushed near 1.3695 to a low of 1.3640 as tensions in the Crimea increased. However, Yellen’s testimony was relatively dovish, which pushed the pair up, hitting intra-day stops above 1.3695/00 and a high of 1.3727 (200 hour MA). EZ inflation data today, a soft outcome may push EUR/USD below the daily cloud and 100 DMA as market will expect ECB to take some action on the deflation.
EUR/JPY: Yen appreciated in London session caused by Ukraine woes. EUR/JPY was the starting yen crosses that led the sell stop runs after capped by 140.25. When 139.66 (Wednesday low) gave away, the downtrend accelerated and broke below the cloud base, Kijun and 38.2% of the 136.25-141.29 rise in the 139.30s. EUR/JPY posted lower daily highs and lows after peaking on Feb 21 by the 55-DMA and 140.25 was once again capped.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 21:45 NZ Building consents Jan 7.60%-prev
• 23:13 JY Manufacturing PMI Feb 56.6-prev
• 23:30 JY All household spding yy Jan f/c 0.20%, 0.70%-prev
• 23:30 JY All household spending mm Jan f/c 1.70%, -0.70%-prev
• 23:30 JY CPI, core nationwide yy Jan f/c 1.20%, 1.30%-prev
• 23:30 JY CPI, overall nationwide Jan 1.60%-prev
• 23:30 JY CPI core Tokyo yy Feb f/c 0.80%, 0.70%-prev
• 23:30 JY CPI, overall Tokyo Feb 0.70%-prev
• 23:30 JY Jobs/applicants ratio Jan f/c 1.04, 1.03-prev
• 23:30 JY Unemployment rate Jan f/c 3.70%, 3.70%-prev
• 23:50 JY Industrial output prelim mm Jan f/c 3.00%, 0.90%-prev
• 23:50 JY IP forecast 1 mth ahead Jan 6.10%-prev
• 23:50 JY IP forecast 2 mth ahead Jan 0.30%-prev
• 23:50 JY Retail sales yy Jan f/c 3.80%, 2.60%-prev
• 00:30 AU Private sector credit Jan f/c 0.40%, 0.50%-prev
• 00:30 AU Housing credit Jan 0.60%-prev
• 02:00 NZ NBNZ business outlook Feb 64.10%-prev
• 02:00 NZ NBNZ own activity Feb 53.50%-prev
