Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): Offers protected the 0.9400 barrier twice and slid back to a low of 0.9348 in NY session. The FOMC minutes came in relatively dovish and US bond yield gave up earlier gains while USD went broadly offered. AUD/USD made another strong push and hit a 0.9399 high. The barrier was kept safe but only slight pullbacks were seen as the USD remained weak. Market will now be focusing on today’s Oz jobs data for March and China trade balance. A solid reading will once again boost up the AUD and barrier may be cleared.
AUD/USD: A break of the 0.9400 barrier would lead the bulls to a push towards November high at 0.9448. Current pivot point for the AUD is at 0.9330 and support comes in at 0.9295 and 0.9250.
EUR/USD: Initially, tight ranges were being played on the pair as sold offering interest in the 1.3810/20 area. ECB member stated a negative deposit rate is a possibility and that the ECB must have flexibility to mix sov & private asset buys in any QE program. However, limited bear push only made the pair drop to 1.3797. The dovish FOMC minutes helped the bulls pushed to a high of 1.3858, market will now be eyeing on the 1.3880 resistance level.
USD/JPY: Given the dovish FOMC minutes, the trendline held and prices dipped to 101.72, at which point the risk-on lift in the Nikkei offset the drop in 2 year yield spreads. Tuesdays 101.55 low is at the up TL off the Feb & March lows. Japanese dip buying interest persists, but would be at risk if the 101.20 Feb lows, 200-DMA and up TL from last June were to give way.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 JP Bank Lending YY Mar 2.20%-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign Bond Investment w/e -763.6b-prev
• 23:50 JP Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e -515.5b-prev
• 23:50 JP Machinery Orders MM Feb f/c -3.00%, 13.40%-prev
• 23:50 JP Machinery Orders YY Feb f/c 7.60%, 23.60%-prev
• 00:01 CN FX Reserves Q1 f/c 3922.000t, 3.820t-prev
• 00:01 CN M2 Money Supply YY Mar f/c 13.00%, 13.30%-prev
• 00:01 CN New Yuan Loans Mar f/c 1000.0b, 644.5b-prev
• 00:01 CN Outstanding Loan Growth Mar f/c 13.90%, 14.20%-prev
• 02:00 CN Exports YY Mar f/c 4.00%, -18.10%-prev
• 02:00 CN Imports YY Mar f/c 2.40%, 10.10%-prev
• 02:00 CN Trade Balance Mar f/c 0.90b, -22.98b-prev
• 23:00 NZ PMI Mar 56.2-prev
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 01:30 JP BOJ Board member Miyao meets business leaders in Okayama
