Currency Updates:
The Australian Dollar (AUD): The pair lifted to hourly resistance in the 0.9425/35 zone as USD/JPY failed to push back above 102 again. The USD attempted to make a comeback in early NY session and a miss to JP Morgan’s earnings hit risk. AUD dipped towards 0.9380/85 but once again bear push were limited. RBA minutes are due this week and the market will look to see if there is any statement concerning the current AUD strength. Also China’s Q1 GDP will be due this week, a lower result may see bears trying to push lower.
AUD/USD: Thursday’s shooting star candle saw downside follow through today and the daily RSI begin to roll over from overbought territory. Last week’s rally stalled at the base of the weekly cloud. These signals may mean a s-t pullback for the pair is needed.
EUR/USD: Last week, EUR/USD managed to push to a high of 1.3906, however, the rally faded as JPY strength pushed EUR/JPY from 131.56 towards 140.65. In the weekend, ECB stated that the stronger the EUR the greater the need for monetary action. A doji formed on the daily chart and it occurred at the 76.4 Fib of 1.3967-1.3672. At the same time daily RSI hasn’t confirmed the new trend high. A pullback for the pair may be due. Good support sits in 1.3805/20 area, bulls remain in charge above that level.
USD/JPY: The pair remained in a range play mode of 101.30-101.80. However, the fact that 101.20 was unable to break while Nikkei futures made new lows for the year o/n created some doubts about s-t USD/JPY downside. For now, the pair need to either break 101.20 or 102.20 for further confirmation, US stocks, Nikkei and Treasury yields still remain relatively heavy.
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
• 03:00 CH FDI (YTD) yy Mar 10.4%
• 08:00 CH Money Supply M2 yy Mar 13.3%
• 08:00 CH New Yuan Loans Mar 644.5B
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No Significant Events
