Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

July 30, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.71% or 39.472pts to 5624.16 (day range: 5650.5 – 5594.3) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5581) and above its 50d MA (@ 5592). 60% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 53% the previous session) and 47% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 44%).

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed on Wednesday, rising against the EUR, JPY and AUD while falling against the CAD and GBP. On the US economic data front, Pending Home Sales fell 1.8% MoM in June vs a downwardly revised 0.6% rise in May. The Federal Reserve said there will be an increase in interest rates following “some further” improvement in the labor market.

The British pound rose against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the CAD and NZD. German GfK consumer confidence index was flat at 10.1 for August, as expected. In UK, mortgage approvals were up to 66.6K in June (66K anticipated) from 64.8K a month earlier (revised from 64.4K).

The Australian dollar fell against most of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1069 0.08 -8.51
GBP/USD 1,5632 0.12 0.35
USD/JPY 123,58 0.05 3.28
EUR/CHF 1,0644 -0.06 -11.45
EUR/JPY 136,7900 0.10 -5.45
EUR/GBP 0,7076 -0.11 -8.89
AUD/NZD 1,0949 -0.15 4.48
AUD/JPY 90,4380 -0.21 -7.48
EUR/AUD 1,5125 0.32 2.13
USD/CAD 1,2930 0.06 11.26
USD/CHF 0,9608 -0.16 -3.35
AUD/USD 0,7318 -0.27 -10.48
NZD/USD 0,6684 -0.04 -14.27

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/SEK – further advance
The pair has rebounded and has broken above a strong horizontal resistance at 9.4150. Further advance is expected as the daily RSI remains well directed. A first target to the upside is set at the horizontal resistance at 9.58. A break above this level would open the way to further bounce towards December 2014 top at 9.72 and towards 9.80 in extension. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 9.16 would open the way to a trend reversal with October 2014 and March 2015 bottom at 9.06 as a first alternative target and with the overlap at 8.96 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.729.
Pivot 0.7290
Our preference Long positions above 0.729 with targets @ 0.7355 & 0.738 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.729 look for further downside with 0.7255 & 0.723 as targets.
Comment A support base at 0.729 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
Economic Releases
AU 03:30: 2Q Import price Idx QoQ, exp.: 1.5%
AU 03:30: 2Q Export price Idx QoQ, exp.: -4%
AU 03:30: Jun Building Approvals MoM, exp.: -1%

The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects TRADING CENTRAL current judgment and may change without notice. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in shares, stock options and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable. 

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