Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 4, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.35% or 19.82pts to 5679.34 (day range: 5703.9 – 5670.2) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5603) and above its 50d MA (@ 5595). 66% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 74% the previous session) and 55% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 57%).

The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) gained 6.2 points MoM to 50.4 in July. Key findings included: “Three of the eight manufacturing sub-sectors expanded in June: food, beverages & tobacco (down 1.7 points to 58.9); wood & paper products (up 4.4 points to 68.2); and petroleum, coal, chemical & rubber products (up 2.2 points to 50.7). Printing & recorded media was stable at 50.0 points after four months of expansion. (…) Textiles, clothing & furniture (down 3.2 points to 49.3) returned to contraction after a brief expansion in June. The machinery and equipment (down 0.6 points to 40.5), metal products (up 3.3 points to 43.0), and non-metallic mineral products (down 2.5 points to 44.0) sub-sectors continued to contract.”

Australia’s securities inflation rose 0.2% MoM in July vs +0.1% in June, according to the TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute for Economic and Social Research.

Australia’s new home sales rose 0.5% MoM in June vs -2.3% in May, according to the Housing Industry Association.

Australia’s job advertisements dropped 0.4% MoM in July vs +1.2% in June, according to the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar rose against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the NZD on Monday. On the US economic data front, Personal Income was 0.4% MoM in June vs a downwardly revised rise of 0.4% in May while Personal Spending gained 0.2% MoM in June vs a downwardly revised 0.7% advance in May. Markit US Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 53.8 in July while ISM Manufacturing fell to 52.7 in July from 53.5 the prior month. In addition, Construction Spending rose 0.1% MoM in June vs an upwardly revised 1.8 rise in May.

The Euro was mixed, rising against the CAD and AUD while falling against the JPY and USD. In Europe, euro zone PMI manufacturing was up to 52.4 in July in final estimation, from 52.2 in prior one. It was 52.5 in June. UK PMI manufacturing rose to 51.9 in July from 51.4 a month earlier. Economists anticipated 51.5.

The Australian dollar fell against most of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0966 -0.16 -9.36
GBP/USD 1,5602 -0.13 0.16
USD/JPY 124,00 0.11 3.61
EUR/CHF 1,0612 -0.03 -11.67
EUR/JPY 135,9800 -0.10 -6.02
EUR/GBP 0,7028 -0.04 -9.51
AUD/NZD 1,1021 -0.63 5.16
AUD/JPY 90,2330 -0.28 -7.71
EUR/AUD 1,5069 0.23 1.76
USD/CAD 1,3134 0.35 13.02
USD/CHF 0,9677 0.16 -2.66
AUD/USD 0,7277 -0.42 -10.98
NZD/USD 0,6603 0.17 -15.31

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – rebound
The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 1.5170 as the daily RSI is well directed. Thus, as long as 1.5170 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), further advance is likely with 1.5935 as a first target (June top) and 1.6190 in extension (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). A third target is set at 1.6525 (last September top). Only a break below 1.5170 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low) and a second one set at 1.4230 (May 2010 low).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7315
Our preference Short positions below 0.7315 with targets @ 0.725 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7315 look for further upside with 0.7335 & 0.7365 as targets.
Comment The immediate trend remains down and the momentum is strong.

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