Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 5, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.33% or 18.556pts to 5697.9 (day range: 5727.7 – 5659.4) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5608) and above its 50d MA (@ 5594). 67% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 66% the previous session) and 57% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 55%). Trading volume on the index was low, 36.5% below the 3 months average.

Australia’s central bank kept the cash rate target unchanged at 2.00% (as expected).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 112.9 in the week ended August 2 from 112.5 in the previous week.

Australia recorded a trade deficit of A$2.9B in June (A$3.0B deficit expected) vs A$2.7B deficit in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Australia’s retail sales rose 0.7% MoM in June vs +0.4% in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Australia’s commodity index dropped 20.2% YoY in July vs -17.1% in June, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against most of its major counterparts except for the Australian dollar on Tuesday. On the US economic data front, U.S. factory orders increased 1.8% in June from a downward revision of -1.1% in May.

The Euro was under pressure. In Europe, euro zone PPI index fell by 0.1% in June after being flat the month before. Economists anticipated prices to be unchanged. According to Nationwide, UK house prices rose 0.4% in July, as expected, after being down by 0.2% in June.

The Australian dollar pushed higher against all of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0892 -0.53 -9.97
GBP/USD 1,5573 -0.09 -0.03
USD/JPY 124,29 0.20 3.84
EUR/CHF 1,0649 0.32 -11.37
EUR/JPY 135,3700 -0.33 -6.43
EUR/GBP 0,6994 -0.44 -9.94
AUD/NZD 1,1294 1.75 7.77
AUD/JPY 91,7990 1.59 -6.10
EUR/AUD 1,4746 -1.87 -0.41
USD/CAD 1,3179 0.17 13.40
USD/CHF 0,9776 0.87 -1.68
AUD/USD 0,7386 1.37 -9.65
NZD/USD 0,6539 -0.37 -16.13

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/JPY – the upside prevails
The pair has strongly rebounded above the support at 185 and remains on the upside. Further advance is likely as the moving averages and the daily RSI remain well directed. Next targets are set at 196.70 at first (horizontal resistance and Fibonacci projection of the previous up move) and at 201.60 in extension (same Fibonacci projection). A third target is set at 209 (horizontal resistance). Only a break below the horizontal support and overlap at 185 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 179.40 (horizontal support) and a second one set at the horizontal support at 175.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: further advance.
Pivot 0.7345
Our preference Long positions above 0.7345 with targets @ 0.743 & 0.745 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7345 look for further downside with 0.73 & 0.726 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

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