Super Thursday is here and the focus will be on GBP. For the first time, BoE will release simultaneously the inflation report, the rate decision and its meeting minutes. The expectation is that rates will remain unchanged, but that policy members will be divided as to their vote. IF the Vote shows that 3 out of 9 members voted for an increase, this is an indication of a step towards the beginning of a rate hiking cycle and GBP could rise. In the US the weekly initial jobless claims figure is due for release and is expected to remain at a solid level.
The USD was mixed yesterday as the ADP employment report showed an addition of only 185k jobs added instead of 230k expected. Overall the jobs data was solid though and with the surprising ISM numbers released later which were the highest since 2005, the USD reversed some of its losses.
AUDUSD is trading lower after unemployment data showed an increase to 6.3% from 6.0% expected. Gold is stable at 1086, while OIL is again under pressure. Elsewhere, USDJPY posted a multi month high yesterday over 125.00 but is now slightly lower.
Please be reminded that NFP is due to be released tomorrow. It is the most important news release of the month and the volatility this time will be the biggest ever in our opinion, if the number is off expectations of 215k jobs created.
Trading Quote of the Day: “Manage the Risk and the profits will come by themselves “
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.321
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.321 with targets @ 1.3105 & 1.305 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.321 look for further upside with 1.326 & 1.329 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9745
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9745 with targets @ 0.9825 & 0.9895 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9745 look for further downside with 0.9715 & 0.9665 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
OIL
Pivot: 46.65
Likely scenario: Short positions below 46.65 with targets @ 44.75 & 44 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 46.65 look for further upside with 47.4 & 48.65 as targets.
Comment: As long as 46.65 is resistance, likely decline to 44.75.
Pivot: 11470
likely scenario: Long positions above 11470 with targets @ 11720 & 11780 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 11470 look for further downside with 11380 & 11250 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
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