After super Thursday, Super Friday is upon us with the most important news of the year to be released at 12:30 GMT. Non- Farm payroll data is expected to increase by 225k compared to 220k average of the past 3 months. Unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.3%. It is still uncertain if FED members will hike rates in September so the data today will be closely monitored in order to come closer to a decision. RBS economists forecast payroll growth of 250k in July though, much higher than the listed consensus of 225k which can significantly strengthen the USD.
Bank of England surprised traders with a dovish direction since the vote indicated that only 1 member of the 9 voted for a rate hike (expectation was 2-7). BoE indicated that the lower oil prices and stronger GBP were reasons why they were reluctant to hike rates (no real inflation threats).
With the exception of the GBP, there was no noteworthy market mover yesterday nor today in the Asian session as markets are waiting for the NFP.
Trading Quote of the Day: “In this business if you’re good. You’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right, nine times out of ten” Peter Lynch
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.315
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.315 with targets @ 1.31 & 1.307 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.315 look for further upside with 1.318 & 1.321 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.315 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.31 remains high.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.976
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.976 with targets @ 0.985 & 0.9895 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.976 look for further downside with 0.9715 & 0.9665 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
OIL
Pivot: 45.8
Likely scenario: Short positions below 45.8 with targets @ 44 & 43.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 45.8 look for further upside with 46.55 & 47.4 as targets.
Comment: As long as 45.8 is resistance, likely decline to 44.
Pivot: 11470
Liekly scenario: Long positions above 11470 with targets @ 11720 & 11780 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 11470 look for further downside with 11380 & 11250 as targets.
Comment: The RSI has just landed on a support around 30% and is reversing up.
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