Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 10, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 2.41% or 135.323pts to 5474.78 (day range: 5571.4 – 5474.78) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5625) and below its 50d MA (@ 5585). 33% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 54% the previous session) and 40% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 47%).

Reserve Bank of Australia released ment on Monetary Policy: “Inflation in the June quarter was broadly as expected and inflationary pressures remain contained. Consumer price inflation has been affected by movements in fuel prices, which are around 10% lower than they were a year earlier. (…) Growth in the Australian economy is expected to pick up gradually to be over 3% by 2017.(…) Further large falls in mining investment are expected to be offset by strong growth of resource exports. (…) The unemployment rate is forecast to be lower than previously anticipated. (…) The inflation forecast has been revised up a little since the previous Statement, primarily because the Australian dollar has depreciated further, implying additional growth in the prices of tradable items over the next few years. (…) Since the May Statement, the Board has judged that an accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate.”

The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI) gained 0.7 points MoM to 47.1 in July.

Australia’s home loans rose 4.4% MoM in June vs -7.3% in May, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Friday. On the US economic data front, US Payrolls increased 215K in July compared to an increase of 223K in June (225K estimate). The jobless rate held at 5.3% in July.

The Euro was stronger against its major pairs except for the Australian and New Zealand Dollar. In Europe, German industrial production fell 1.4% in June after a 0.2% increase the month before (revised from a stability). Economists anticipated +0.3%. German trade balance excess increase to E24B in June from E19.5B in May. Exports slid by 1% while imports decreased by 0.5%. UK trade balance deficit was up to £1.6B in June from £0.89B a month earlier.

The Australian dollar was higher against all of its major counterparts except for the New Zealand Dollar.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0958 0.30 -9.42
GBP/USD 1,5492 -0.13 -0.55
USD/JPY 124,23 -0.40 3.80
EUR/CHF 1,0783 0.63 -10.24
EUR/JPY 136,1300 -0.11 -5.90
EUR/GBP 0,7073 0.44 -8.92
AUD/NZD 1,1199 -0.09 6.87
AUD/JPY 92,1070 0.50 -5.78
EUR/AUD 1,4780 -0.62 -0.19
USD/CAD 1,3124 0.12 12.94
USD/CHF 0,9840 0.32 -1.03
AUD/USD 0,7414 0.93 -9.31
NZD/USD 0,6620 1.02 -15.10

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/RUB – further advance
The pair remains on the upside as it remains supported by the moving averages. The rising daily RSI, supported by a rising trend line, adds pressure to the upside. Then, as long as 52.30 holds as a support, further advance is likely with 67.30 as a first target and 71.80 in extension (January top). A third target is set at 79.35 (December 2014 top). Alternatively, a break below 52.3 would call for another test of the 48.5 strong support base. A break below this threshold would lead to a drop towards the next support at 41.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7335
Our preference Long positions above 0.7335 with targets @ 0.743 & 0.745 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7335 look for further downside with 0.7315 & 0.7285 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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