Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 12, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 0.65% or 35.926pts to 5473.23 (day range: 5543.2 – 5463) on Tuesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5621) and below its 50d MA (@ 5575). 32% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 38% the previous session) and 43% of the shares are above their 50D MA (unchanged).

Australia’s foreign reserves amounted to A$68.9B in July vs A$67.3B in June, according to the central bank.

Australia’s July business conditions was 6 (vs 10 in June) and business confidence was 4 (vs 8 in June), according to the National Australia Bank.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was stronger against its major counterparts on Tuesday. On the economic data front, the July NFIB small business optimism index rose to 95.4 from 94.1 in June, in-line with estimates. Wholesale inventories rose 0.9% MoM in June compared to a 0.8% gain in May.

The Euro pushed higher against its major pairs. In Europe, German ZEW business confidence survey for expectations fell to 25 in August from 29.7 in July. It was expected to be up to 31.9.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major counterparts.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1044 0.23 -8.71
GBP/USD 1,5577 -0.10 0.00
USD/JPY 125,11 0.39 4.53
EUR/CHF 1,0914 0.69 -9.16
EUR/JPY 138,1700 0.62 -4.49
EUR/GBP 0,7090 0.31 -8.71
AUD/NZD 1,1162 -0.36 6.51
AUD/JPY 91,3460 -1.12 -6.56
EUR/AUD 1,5126 1.77 2.15
USD/CAD 1,3110 0.83 12.81
USD/CHF 0,9883 0.47 -0.60
AUD/USD 0,7301 -1.51 -10.69
NZD/USD 0,6541 -1.18 -16.11

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – the upside prevails
The pair is pulling back above the strong horizontal support at 1.0810 as the daily RSI lacks downward momentum. Then, as long as 1.0810 holds as a strong support, a rebound is likely with 1.1215 as a first target (July 10th top) and 1.15 in extension (previous top). A third target is set at 1.1730 (horizontal resistance). Only a break below 1.081 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.0450 (March low) and 1.02 (horizontal support and overlap).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7355
Our preference Short positions below 0.7355 with targets @ 0.726 & 0.723 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7355 look for further upside with 0.7385 & 0.743 as targets.
Comment The RSI is badly directed.

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