Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

August 20, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.45% or 77.042pts to 5380.19 (day range: 5383.2 – 5307) on Wednesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5531) and below its 50d MA (@ 5555). 25% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 18% the previous session) and 36% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 32%).

Australia’s leading index was 97.74 in July vs 97.71 in June, according to the Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications Rose 3.6% for the week ending August 14 compared to an increase of 0.1% in the week before. CPI increased 0.1% MoM in July, below the 0.2% estimate.

The Euro was higher against all its major pairs except for the Swiss Franc. No major economic news was reported in Europe.

The Australian dollar was mixed against its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1132 0.98 -7.98
GBP/USD 1,5687 0.17 0.71
USD/JPY 123,79 -0.50 3.43
EUR/CHF 1,0741 -0.32 -10.59
EUR/JPY 137,7900 0.46 -4.75
EUR/GBP 0,7096 0.82 -8.64
AUD/NZD 1,1121 0.03 6.12
AUD/JPY 91,0460 -0.31 -6.87
EUR/AUD 1,5135 0.80 2.21
USD/CAD 1,3107 0.38 12.78
USD/CHF 0,9648 -1.27 -2.96
AUD/USD 0,7355 0.19 -10.03
NZD/USD 0,6613 0.18 -15.19

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/RUB – further advance
The pair remains on the upside as it remains supported by the moving averages. The rising daily RSI, supported by a rising trend line, adds pressure to the upside. Then, as long as 52.30 holds as a support, further advance is likely with 67.30 as a first target and 71.80 in extension (January top). A third target is set at 79.35 (December 2014 top). Alternatively, a break below 52.3 would call for another test of the 48.5 strong support base. A break below this threshold would lead to a drop towards the next support at 41.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7310
Our preference Long positions above 0.731 with targets @ 0.7365 & 0.739 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.731 look for further downside with 0.728 & 0.7255 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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