Yesterday the ECB kept rates unchanged however the EURUSD dropped after Mario Draghi downgraded growth as well as inflation expectations and hinted that the ECB is ready to add further QE in order to stimulate growth. EURUSD fell to 1.1080 from over 1.1240.
Overnight, JPY crosses were hit hard as a resumption of falling stock markets emerged again. USDJPY lost over 100 pips and is trading at 119.20. AUDUSD was also on the back foot and hit a new 6, 5 year low at 0.6959.
The torch is now passed to NFP at 12:30 GMT. Market participants will be watching closely to see if the job sector in the US is strong enough for the FED to justify a rate hike. A weak number (below 200,000) would quite possibly rule out a September rate hike. . The market is predicting a 218,000 increase in jobs in August, which is pretty close to the average over the past six months, as well as to the reading from July.
Trading Quote of the Day: “anybody who says that money is the root of all evil, doesn’t have any”
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3245
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.3245 with targets @ 1.3175 & 1.313 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3245 look for further upside with 1.329 & 1.3325 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.3245 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.3175 remains high.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9675
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9675 with targets @ 0.9775 & 0.982 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9675 look for further downside with 0.9635 & 0.9565 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
OIL
Pivot: 45
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45 with targets @ 48.7 & 49.4 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45 look for further downside with 43.2 & 41.75 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
DAX
Pivot: 10440
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10440 with targets @ 9880 & 9645 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10440 look for further upside with 10650 & 10735 as targets.
Comment: As long as 10440 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
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