Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 8, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 0.2% or 10.182pts to 5030.42 (day range: 5046.3 – 4973.4) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5223) and below its 50d MA (@ 5441). 21% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 18% the previous session) and 17% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 18%).

The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (Australian PCI) gained 6.7 points MoM to 53.8 in August. Key findings included: “After all four sub-indexes contracted in August, three returned to expansion in August: construction activity (up 5.2 points to 52.8); new orders (up 12.2 points to 57.6); and employment (up 7.5 points to 55.0. Supplier deliveries spent a fifth month in contraction (down 2.9 points to 46.1). (…) In residential construction, apartment building activity remained solid on the back of August’s 11-month high (down 3.3 points to 58.7), while house building expanded from August’s stability (up 4.4 points to 54.4).”

Australia’s job advertisements rose 1.0% MoM in August vs -0.5% in August, according to the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

Australia’s foreign reserves amounted to A$71.2B in August vs A$68.9B in August, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts with the exception of the GBP and EUR on Monday. There was no economic data released today. U.S. Equity Markets were closed to observe Labor Day.

The Euro was stronger against all its major counterparts except for the GBP. In Europe, German industrial production increased 0.7% in July (+1.1% expected) after a 0.9% decline the month before (revised from -1.4%).

The Australian dollar was higher against its major pairs except for the GBP.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1168 0.17 -7.69
GBP/USD 1,5277 0.71 -1.93
USD/JPY 119,30 0.23 -0.32
EUR/CHF 1,0891 0.48 -9.35
EUR/JPY 133,2400 0.40 -7.91
EUR/GBP 0,7308 -0.54 -5.90
AUD/NZD 1,1054 0.42 5.47
AUD/JPY 82,6180 0.49 -15.50
EUR/AUD 1,6127 -0.06 8.88
USD/CAD 1,3307 0.20 14.50
USD/CHF 0,9752 0.36 -1.92
AUD/USD 0,6925 0.25 -15.29
NZD/USD 0,6265 -0.32 -19.65

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – pulling back
The pair has broken above the upper boundary of triangle pattern and is posting a pull back ahead of a rebound. Then, as long as 1.0810 holds as a strong support, further advance is likely with 1.1730 as a first target (horizontal resistance) and 1.2050 in extension (overlap, July 2012 bottom). A third target is set at 1.2250 (strong horizontal resistance). Only a break below 1.081 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.0450 (March low) and 1.02 (horizontal support and overlap).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.6990
Our preference Short positions below 0.699 with targets @ 0.69 & 0.685 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.699 look for further upside with 0.702 & 0.7065 as targets.
Comment As long as 0.699 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

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