Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 9, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.69% or 84.829pts to 5115.25 (day range: 5115.25 – 5030.4) on Tuesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5205) and below its 50d MA (@ 5435). 31% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 21% the previous session) and 24% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 17%).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index dropped 5.8% WoW to 106.7 in the week ended September 6.

Australia’s August business conditions was 11 (vs 6 in July) and business confidence was 1 (vs 4 in July), according to the National Australia Bank.

 

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was under pressure against its major counterparts with the exception of the CHF and JPY on Tuesday. On the economic data front, NFIB small business optimism rose to 95.9 in August from 95.4 in July (96 estimate).

The Euro was weaker against all its major counterparts except for the CHF and JPY. In Europe, euro zone GDP growth was 0.4% in 2Q from a previous estimation of +0.3%. German trade balance excess increased to E25B in July from E24.1B in June. Exports were up by 2.4% while imports gained 2.2%.

The Australian dollar pushed higher against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1207 0.33 -7.36
GBP/USD 1,5394 0.77 -1.17
USD/JPY 119,85 0.49 0.14
EUR/CHF 1,0973 0.78 -8.64
EUR/JPY 134,3200 0.82 -7.15
EUR/GBP 0,7279 -0.47 -6.28
AUD/NZD 1,1063 0.02 5.56
AUD/JPY 84,1910 1.98 -13.85
EUR/AUD 1,5955 -1.10 7.74
USD/CAD 1,3213 -0.71 13.69
USD/CHF 0,9793 0.43 -1.51
AUD/USD 0,7024 1.44 -14.08
NZD/USD 0,6349 1.44 -18.57

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

AUD/USD – further weakness
The pair remains on the downside as it remains capped by the 20 and 50-days moving averages as the RSI stands below its neutrality area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with a first target at 0.6865 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 0.6650. A third target is set at 0.6350 (horizontal support). Only a rebound the strong horizontal resistance at 0.76 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at the previous overlap at 0.7805 and a second one set at May top at 0.8165.
 TC 9Sep AUDUSDdaily

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
 TC 9Sep AUDUSD
Pivot 0.6950
Our preference Long positions above 0.695 with targets @ 0.7065 & 0.71 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.695 look for further downside with 0.69 & 0.685 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

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