Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 11, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 2.42% or 126.112pts to 5095.02 (day range: 5221.1 – 5088.7) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5183) and below its 50d MA (@ 5419). 28% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 50% the previous session) and 24% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 34%).

Australia’s jobless rate was 6.2% in August (vs 6.3% in July) and participation rate was 65% (vs 65.1% in July), according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was under pressure against most of its major counterparts on Thursday except for the NZD and JPY. On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims declined to 275K for the week ending Sept 5 compared to 281K in the week before. Continuing Claims reported 2260K for the week ending Aug 29 compared to 2259K in the week prior. Wholesale inventories fell .01% in July vs a 0.7% increase in June. Import prices fell 1.8% in August compared to a decrease of 0.9% in July.

The Euro was stronger against all its major counterparts except for the AUD. In Europe, Bank of England kept its main benchmark interest rate at +0.5%, as expected. BoE stuck to its asset purchase target of £375B. Separately, RICS house price balance index climbed to 53% in August (49% expected) from 44% in July.

The Australian dollar was stronger against all of its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1278 -0.02 -6.78
GBP/USD 1,5446 0.01 -0.84
USD/JPY 120,73 0.08 0.87
EUR/CHF 1,0977 0.01 -8.62
EUR/JPY 136,1600 0.08 -5.88
EUR/GBP 0,7301 -0.03 -5.99
AUD/NZD 1,1230 -0.11 7.15
AUD/JPY 85,4790 0.21 -12.55
EUR/AUD 1,5930 -0.11 7.58
USD/CAD 1,3229 -0.17 13.84
USD/CHF 0,9734 0.01 -2.11
AUD/USD 0,7080 0.11 -13.39
NZD/USD 0,6305 0.22 -19.14

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/JPY – under pressure
The pair has broken below the strong support at 185 and below the 200-days moving average and is currently posting a pull back. Moreover, the daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. Then, as long as 191 holds as a resistance, targets on the downside are set at 179.40 at first (horizontal support) and at 175 in extension. A third target is set at 169.50 (strong horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 191 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target is set at 196 (June top) and a second one set at 201.60 (Fibonacci projection).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7035
Our preference Long positions above 0.7035 with targets @ 0.7125 & 0.7155 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7035 look for further downside with 0.6996 & 0.6963 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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