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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 14, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index declined 0.47% or 23.932pts to 5071.08 (day range: 5116.1 – 5053.7) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5168) and below its 50d MA (@ 5409). 29% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 28% the previous session) and 24% of the shares are above their 50D MA (unchanged). Trading volume on the index was high, 106.5% above the 3 months average.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, US PPI MoM for August was unchanged compared to a 0.2% increase in July. University of Michigan Sentiment dropped to a yearly low of 85.7 in September vs 91.9 in August.

The Euro was higher against all its major counterparts. In Europe, German consumer prices were flat in August in final estimation, as expected, after a 0.2% rise in July.

The Australian dollar was mixed against its major pairs.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1339 0.52 -6.27
GBP/USD 1,5431 -0.09 -0.94
USD/JPY 120,56 -0.05 0.74
EUR/CHF 1,0985 0.07 -8.57
EUR/JPY 136,7100 0.48 -5.51
EUR/GBP 0,7348 0.61 -5.39
AUD/NZD 1,1213 -0.26 7.00
AUD/JPY 85,4050 0.10 -12.64
EUR/AUD 1,6007 0.37 8.10
USD/CAD 1,3253 0.01 14.05
USD/CHF 0,9687 -0.47 -2.58
AUD/USD 0,7084 0.17 -13.35
NZD/USD 0,6318 0.43 -18.97

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
NZD/USD – further weakness
The pair remains in a long-term down trend. The declining 20-day moving average is actively capping the pair and is offering strong resistance. The daily RSI stands below its neutrality area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with 0.62 as a first target (2009 overlap area) and 0.5840 in extension. A third target is set at April 2009 bottom at 0.55. Only a break above the horizontal resistance at 0.6980 would invalidate this scenario and allow a limited recovery towards the strong horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.72 and towards the resistance at 0.7570 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot 0.7100
Our preference Short positions below 0.71 with targets @ 0.703 & 0.7 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.71 look for further upside with 0.7125 & 0.7155 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.
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