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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

September 28, 2015
Market Comment
Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.58% or 29.556pts to 5042.11 (day range: 5116.3 – 5036.1) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5091) and below its 50d MA (@ 5315). 49% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 50% the previous session) and 32% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 30%).
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts on Friday with the exception of the NZD. On the economic data front, US GDP for 2Q was revised slightly higher to 3.9% from 3.7%. Personal consumption increased 3.6% in 2Q compared to 3.1% prior. MARKIT US composite PMI lowered to 55.3 in Sept from 55.7 in Aug. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 87.2 for Sept compared to 85.7 In Aug.

The Euro was mixed against its major counterparts . In Europe, euro zone M3 money supply growth was +4.8% in August after +5.3% in July. Economists anticipated growth to be at the same pace MoM. French consumer confidence index climbed to 97 in September, a new high since October 2007, from 94 in August( revised from 93). Consensus expected a 94 reading.

The Australian dollar was higher against its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1204 -0.23 -7.39
GBP/USD 1,5196 -0.30 -2.45
USD/JPY 120,56 0.40 0.72
EUR/CHF 1,0966 0.10 -8.72
EUR/JPY 135,0700 0.17 -6.62
EUR/GBP 0,7373 0.07 -5.07
AUD/NZD 1,1007 -0.40 5.03
AUD/JPY 84,7010 0.42 -13.37
EUR/AUD 1,5947 -0.26 7.69
USD/CAD 1,3320 0.12 14.63
USD/CHF 0,9787 0.36 -1.57
AUD/USD 0,7026 0.03 -14.06
NZD/USD 0,6383 0.44 -18.14

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day
USD/CAD – further advance
The pair remains on the upside and should post further advance as it is still supported by the moving averages. Moreover, the daily RSI stands above its neutrality area. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 1.3450 (horizontal resistance). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards 1.40 (May 2004 top). A third target is set at the previous overlap from january 2000 at 1.4320. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 1.28 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.2560 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 1.24.
Intraday Technical Strategy
AUD/USD Intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot 0.6980
Our preference Long positions above 0.698 with targets @ 0.706 & 0.709 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.698 look for further downside with 0.6935 & 0.69 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum. The pair has broken above a declining trend line and is rebounding above its support.

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