The weak employment report of Friday (142k job additions Vs 201k expectations) contributed to a very weak USD as now analysts expect the Fed have no further reason to raise rates in December. USD weakness was more apparent against commodities and commodity currencies (especially CAD). GOLD itself, jumped 30+ to trade up to 1140 from 1110 levels. Elsewhere, USD closed the week with limited losses.
There are number of Central Bank rate decisions this week with RBA (Australia) rate decision on Tuesday, BoJ (Japan) on Wednesday, and BoE (UK) on Thursday. The Fed will also release its FOMC minutes on Thursday. Meanwhile, prominent economic releases today include USD ISM non-manufacturing, UK service PMI and EZ Retail Sales.
Trading quote of the day: Date them, don’t marry them (losing positions)
Currency Updates:
EURUSD
Pivot: 1.128
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.128 with targets @ 1.1195 & 1.1145 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.128 look for further upside with 1.1335 & 1.1385 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.
USDJPY
Pivot: 119.45
Likely scenario: Long positions above 119.45 with targets @ 120.35 & 120.65 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 119.45 look for further downside with 119.2 & 118.8 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5165
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.5165 with targets @ 1.5245 & 1.529 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5165 look for further downside with 1.514 & 1.5105 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7035
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.7035 with targets @ 0.7085 & 0.7115 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.7035 look for further downside with 0.7 & 0.6975 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
GOLD
Pivot: 1120
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1120 with targets @ 1144 & 1148 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1120 look for further downside with 1112 & 1105 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
USDCAD
Pivot: 1.322
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.322 with targets @ 1.31 & 1.306 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.322 look for further upside with 1.325 & 1.328 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further downside.
USDCHF
Pivot: 0.973
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.973 with targets @ 0.963 & 0.958 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.973 look for further upside with 0.9755 & 0.9795 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.
OIL
Pivot: 45.2
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45.2 with targets @ 46.33 & 46.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45.2 look for further downside with 44.65 & 44 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
DAX
Pivot: 10800
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10800 with targets @ 11900 & 12390 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10800 look for further downside with 10450 & 10000 as targets.
Comment: The RSI calls for a rebound.
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