Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 9, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.24% or 12.526pts to 5210.4 (day range: 5256 – 5197.9) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5091) and below its 50d MA (@ 5221). 79% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 75% the previous session) and 49% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 48%).

Australia’s foreign reserves amounted to A$72.7B in September vs A$71.2B in August, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was up against all its major counterparts on Thursday. On the economic data front, Initial jobless claims decreased by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 in the week ended Oct. 3. (274K estimate). Continuing claims came in at 2204K for the week ended Sept 26 from a revised 2195K the week before.

The Euro was higher against its major pairs. In Europe, German trade balance excess narrowed to E15.3B in August from E25B in July. It was expected to be E19B. Exports plunged by 5.2% while imports fell 3.1%. Bank of England kept its main benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and stuck to its asset purchase target of £375B.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1280 0.04 -6.76
GBP/USD 1,5351 0.02 -1.45
USD/JPY 119,91 -0.02 0.18
EUR/CHF 1,0899 0.01 -9.30
EUR/JPY 135,2600 0.02 -6.50
EUR/GBP 0,7348 0.01 -5.39
AUD/NZD 1,0877 -0.12 3.79
AUD/JPY 86,9490 -0.11 -11.06
EUR/AUD 1,5555 0.09 5.04
USD/CAD 1,3017 0.01 12.03
USD/CHF 0,9660 -0.02 -2.84
AUD/USD 0,7252 -0.11 -11.29
NZD/USD 0,6667 0.00 -14.49

Currency Updates:

USD/ZAR – pulling back
The pair has broken above its previous top and is currently posting a pull back but remains supported by the rising 50-days moving average. Moreover, the daily RSI is approaching its support. A rebound is therefore expected with a first target set at 14.15 (September top). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards targets given by a Fibonacci projection at 14.80 and at 15.20 in extension. Only a break below the strong support at 12.95 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at the previous overlap at 12.60 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 12.30.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7160
Our preference Long positions above 0.716 with targets @ 0.728 & 0.731 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.716 look for further downside with 0.712 & 0.708 as targets.
Comment The RSI is well directed.

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