Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 19, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was up 0.73% or 38.164pts to 5268.21 (day range: 5294.3 – 5230) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5132) and above its 50d MA (@ 5173). 75% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 68% the previous session) and 64% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 56%).
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against all its major counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, US Industrial Production declined 0.2% in Sept from a decline of 0.4% in Aug. Capacity Utilization lowered to 77.5% in Sept from 77.6% in Aug. Finally, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased to 92.1 in Oct from 87.2 in Sept.

The Euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, EU27 new car registrations increased 9.8% in September after being up by 11.2% in August. Euro zone trade balance excess fell to E19.8B in August from E22.4B a month earlier. It was expected to be E22.1B. Euro zone consumer prices increased 0.2% in September, as expected, after being flat a month earlier. YoY, prices were down by 0.1%.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1351 -0.31 -6.17
GBP/USD 1,5439 -0.13 -0.89
USD/JPY 119,47 0.49 -0.18
EUR/CHF 1,0825 0.05 -9.89
EUR/JPY 135,6100 0.20 -6.26
EUR/GBP 0,7353 -0.20 -5.33
AUD/NZD 1,0670 -0.26 1.81
AUD/JPY 86,8990 -0.29 -11.11
EUR/AUD 1,5605 0.45 5.38
USD/CAD 1,2909 0.32 11.08
USD/CHF 0,9537 0.31 -4.08
AUD/USD 0,7274 -0.75 -11.02
NZD/USD 0,6817 -0.51 -12.57

Currency Updates:

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot 0.7305
Our preference Short positions below 0.7305 with targets @ 0.7237 & 0.7213 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7305 look for further upside with 0.7345 & 0.738 as targets.
Comment Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/CAD – rebound expected

The pair has posted a new high and is currently facing a pull back on the strong horizontal support at 1.28. Moreover, the daily RSI is approaching its oversold area. A rebound is therefore likely with a first target set at 1.3450 (horizontal resistance and September top). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards 1.40 (May 2004 top). A third target is set at the previous overlap from january 2000 at 1.4320. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 1.28 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.2560 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 1.24.

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