Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 20, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index was flat on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5142) and above its 50d MA (@ 5168). 81% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 75% the previous session) and 74% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 64%).

The Business New Zealand and BNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 59.3 in September, the highest level since November 2007, from 58.5 in August.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts on Monday with the exception of the GBP. On the economic data front, US Homebuilder confidence reached a decade high with the index reaching 64 for October compared to 62 in September.

The Euro was mixed against its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone construction output fell 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% a month earlier (revised from +1%). According to Rightmove, UK house prices were up by 0.6% in October after a 0.9% rise in September.

The Australian dollar was lower against all its major pairs except for the CAD and NZD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1325 -0.20 -6.39
GBP/USD 1,5463 0.16 -0.73
USD/JPY 119,51 0.05 -0.14
EUR/CHF 1,0831 0.05 -9.85
EUR/JPY 135,3400 -0.15 -6.44
EUR/GBP 0,7323 -0.37 -5.70
AUD/NZD 1,0663 -0.14 1.74
AUD/JPY 86,5830 -0.26 -11.43
EUR/AUD 1,5632 0.06 5.57
USD/CAD 1,3016 0.77 12.00
USD/CHF 0,9564 0.30 -3.81
AUD/USD 0,7245 -0.26 -11.38
NZD/USD 0,6794 -0.21 -12.86

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/USD – rebound

The pair has rebounded above the strong support at 1.5070 as the daily RSI is reversing up above its oversold area and stands above its neutrality area. Thus, as long as 1.5070 holds on the downside (horizontal support and overlap), a rebound is likely with 1.5660 as a first target (September top) and 1.5940 in extension (June top and previous overlap). A third target is set at 1.6190 (61.8% retracement of the July 2014 to April down leg). Only a break below 1.5070 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.4850 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 1.4560 (horizontal support and April low).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: key resistance at 0.7305.

Pivot 0.7305
Our preference Short positions below 0.7305 with targets @ 0.724 & 0.7225 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7305 look for further upside with 0.7345 & 0.738 as targets.
Comment As long as the resistance at 0.7305 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.724 remains high.

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