Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 22, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.24% or 12.731pts to 5248.31 (day range: 5260 – 5195.4) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5161) and above its 50d MA (@ 5161). 75% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 81% the previous session) and 68% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 74%).

Australia’s leading index was 97.6 in September vs 97.48 in August, according to the Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against its major counterparts on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage applications rose 11.8% last week from a decrease of 27.6% the week before.

The Euro was higher against its major pairs except for the JPY and HKD. In Europe, The UK budget deficit fell to £9.4B in September from £11.6B a year earlier, the lowest since 2007.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against its major pairs except for the CAD.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1340 -0.05 -6.27
GBP/USD 1,5419 -0.16 -1.01
USD/JPY 119,92 0.06 0.19
EUR/CHF 1,0881 0.28 -9.44
EUR/JPY 135,9900 0.01 -6.00
EUR/GBP 0,7355 0.12 -5.30
AUD/NZD 1,0737 -0.12 2.46
AUD/JPY 86,4890 -0.58 -11.52
EUR/AUD 1,5723 0.61 6.18
USD/CAD 1,3138 1.24 13.06
USD/CHF 0,9592 0.33 -3.52
AUD/USD 0,7213 -0.65 -11.77
NZD/USD 0,6715 -0.56 -13.88

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/JPY – under pressure
The pair has posted a pull back but remains capped by the 50 and by the 200-days moving average. Then, as long as 191 holds as a resistance, targets on the downside are set at 179.40 at first (horizontal support) and at 175 in extension. A third target is set at 169.50 (strong horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 191 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 196 (June top) and a second one set at 201.60 (Fibonacci projection).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7275
Our preference Short positions below 0.7275 with targets @ 0.72 & 0.716 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7275 look for further upside with 0.7305 & 0.7345 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

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