Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

October 30, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.28% or 68.366pts to 5266.86 (day range: 5353.5 – 5257.1) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5243) and above its 50d MA (@ 5157). 63% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 73% the previous session) and 74% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 78%).

Australia’s new home sales dropped 4% MoM in September vs +2.3% in August, according to the Housing Industry Association.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) reported FY15 cash profit up 1.4% YoY to $7.22B on total income of $20.52B, up 4.8% YoY. Net interest income rose 5.9% YoY to $14.62B.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was lower against most of its major counterparts with the exception of the AUD and NZD on Thursday. On the economic data front, US Initial Jobless Claims were little changed, reporting 260K last week from 259K the week before. GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate after a 3.9% pace in the previous 3 months, mainly due to an inventory correction. Finally, Pending home sales fell 2.3% in Sept from a decrease of $1.4% in Aug. Economists had been expecting a 1% increase.

The Euro pushed higher against all of its major pairs. In Europe, the consumer confidence index was at -7.7 in October in final estimation , vs -7.1 in September. In Germany, unemployment claims rate was flat at 6.4% in October, as expected. Separately, German consumer prices were flat in October in preliminary estimation from a 0.2% drop in September. They were anticipated to decline by 0.1%.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0981 0.53 -9.23
GBP/USD 1,5314 0.33 -1.69
USD/JPY 121,10 -0.01 1.16
EUR/CHF 1,0863 0.03 -9.57
EUR/JPY 132,9800 0.49 -8.11
EUR/GBP 0,7169 0.17 -7.69
AUD/NZD 1,0571 -0.43 0.87
AUD/JPY 85,6750 -0.53 -12.39
EUR/AUD 1,5522 1.09 4.81
USD/CAD 1,3164 -0.21 13.27
USD/CHF 0,9894 -0.48 -0.48
AUD/USD 0,7074 -0.58 -13.47
NZD/USD 0,6692 -0.15 -14.17

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

AUD/USD – still under pressure

The pair has posted a rebound but stands below the strong horizontal resistance at 0.76. Moreover, the daily RSI has reversed down below its overbought area. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with a first target at 0.6865 (horizontal support) and a second one set at 0.6650. A third target is set at 0.6350 (horizontal support). Only a rebound above the strong horizontal resistance at 0.76 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at the previous overlap at 0.7805 and a second one set at May top at 0.8165.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot 0.7120
Our preference Short positions below 0.712 with targets @ 0.705 & 0.7015 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.712 look for further upside with 0.716 & 0.7206 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

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