Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 3, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index declined 1.41% or 73.688pts to 5165.75 (day range: 5249.3 – 5162.7) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5253) and above its 50d MA (@ 5161). 59% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 67% the previous session) and 69% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 72%).

Australia’s building approvals rose 21.4% YoY in September vs +4.7% in August, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Australia’s commodity index dropped 19.8% YoY in October vs -21% in September, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) declined 1.9 points MoM to 50.2 in October.

Australia’s inflation is gauged at +0.0% MoM and +1.8% YoY in October (vs +0.3% MoM and +1.9% YoY in September), according to TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against all of its major counterparts on Monday. On the economic data front, MARKIT US Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.1 in Oct from 54 in Sept. Construction spending increased 0.6% in Sept, above the economists estimate of 0.5%. Finally, ISM Manufacturing PMI lowered to 50.1 in Oct however it was above the estimate of 50. It was 50.2 in September.

The Euro was higher against most of its major pairs except for the CHF. In Europe, euro zone PMI manufacturing index rose to 52.3 in final estimation from 52 in first one. It was 52 in September. UK PMI manufacturing index surged to 55.5 in October (51.3 expected) from 51.8 a month earlier.

The Australian dollar was mixed against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,1012 0.05 -8.98
GBP/USD 1,5415 -0.08 -1.04
USD/JPY 120,76 0.11 0.88
EUR/CHF 1,0868 -0.03 -9.53
EUR/JPY 132,9800 0.16 -8.08
EUR/GBP 0,7144 0.16 -8.02
AUD/NZD 1,0605 0.69 1.20
AUD/JPY 86,2460 0.17 -11.79
EUR/AUD 1,5418 -0.02 4.12
USD/CAD 1,3101 0.18 12.73
USD/CHF 0,9867 -0.10 -0.75
AUD/USD 0,7142 0.06 -12.64
NZD/USD 0,6735 -0.63 -13.62

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – under pressure

The pair has broken below a rising trend line in place since November 2014 and is posting a pull back on the strong horizontal resistance at 122. Moreover, the daily is reversing down. Then, further weakness is likely with 116 as a first target (December bottom) and 113.40 in extension (horizontal support). A third target is set at 110 (strong horizontal support and overlap). Only a rebound above 122 (strong horizontal resistance) would call for a bullish trend reversal with 126 as a first alternative target (June top) and 127.70 in extension.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot 0.7110
Our preference Long positions above 0.711 with targets @ 0.716 & 0.72 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.711 look for further downside with 0.7065 & 0.7015 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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