Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 4, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index jumped 1.42% or 73.465pts to 5239.22 (day range: 5246.4 – 5165.8) on Tuesday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5256) and above its 50d MA (@ 5163). 70% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 59% the previous session) and 76% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 69%).

Australia’s central bank maintained its cash rate target at 2.00% (as expected).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 1.6% WoW to 115.2 in the week ended November 1.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was higher against most of its major counterparts except for the AUD and CAD on Tuesday. On the economic data front, US Manufacturers new orders declined 1% in September from a revised decline of 2.1% in August. The decline was more than the (-0.9%) expected.

The Euro was under pressure against most of its major pairs except for the NZD. In Europe, UK PMI construction index fell to 58.8 in October, as expected, from 59.9 a month earlier.

The Australian dollar pushed higher against all its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0963 -0.48 -9.38
GBP/USD 1,5424 0.05 -0.98
USD/JPY 120,99 0.19 1.09
EUR/CHF 1,0861 -0.11 -9.59
EUR/JPY 132,6500 -0.28 -8.31
EUR/GBP 0,7108 -0.52 -8.47
AUD/NZD 1,0735 1.32 2.44
AUD/JPY 87,0240 0.84 -10.99
EUR/AUD 1,5243 -1.13 2.93
USD/CAD 1,3054 -0.30 12.34
USD/CHF 0,9906 0.37 -0.38
AUD/USD 0,7192 0.63 -12.02
NZD/USD 0,6700 -0.65 -14.07

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – under pressure

The pair has broken below the lower boundary of a bullish channel in place since March and is now capped by its moving averages. Then, as long as 1.1495 holds as a resistance (October top), further weakness is likely with 1.0810 as a first target (horizontal support) and 1.0450 (March low) in extension. A third target is set at 1.0190 (previous overlap). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.1495 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.1730 (August top) and a second one set at 1.2050 (overlap, July 2012 bottom).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot 0.7120
Our preference Long positions above 0.712 with targets @ 0.7225 & 0.726 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.712 look for further downside with 0.7065 & 0.7015 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

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