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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 16, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.45% or 74.437pts to 5051.26 (day range: 5125.7 – 5010.4) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5224) and below its 50d MA (@ 5164). 28% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 41% the previous session) and 53% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 60%).
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar pushed higher against all of its major counterparts on Friday. On the economic data front, US retail sales increased 0.1% in Oct, in-line with Sept and below the 0.3% estimate. US wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in October for a second month, lowered by falling costs of food and new model light trucks. The index dropped 0.4% from a 0.5% drop in September. Finally, The University of Michigan consumer sentiment climbed more than forecasted this month to 93.1 a 4 month high, from 90 in Oct.

The Euro was lower against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF. In Europe, euro zone GDP growth was 0.3% for 3Q against +0.4% expected and +0.4% in the previous quarter.

The Australian dollar was higher against most of its major pairs with the exception of the USD and HKD.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0752 -0.57 -11.13
GBP/USD 1,5228 -0.03 -2.24
USD/JPY 122,67 0.05 2.49
EUR/CHF 1,0829 0.13 -9.85
EUR/JPY 131,8900 -0.52 -8.83
EUR/GBP 0,7061 -0.54 -9.09
AUD/NZD 1,0903 0.12 4.05
AUD/JPY 87,4110 0.04 -10.59
EUR/AUD 1,5088 -0.57 1.89
USD/CAD 1,3320 0.21 14.61
USD/CHF 1,0072 0.71 1.29
AUD/USD 0,7126 0.00 -12.83
NZD/USD 0,6535 -0.12 -16.19

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/CAD – further advance
The pair has rebounded above the strong horizontal support and overlap at 1.28. Moreover, the daily RSI has rebounded above its oversold area. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 1.3450 (horizontal resistance and September top). A break above this threshold would open the way to further bounce towards 1.40 (May 2004 top). A third target is set at the previous overlap from january 2000 at 1.4320. Only a break below the strong horizontal support at 1.28 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 1.2560 and a second one set at the horizontal support at 1.24.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7080
Our preference Long positions above 0.708 with targets @ 0.715 & 0.717 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.708 look for further downside with 0.704 & 0.7015 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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