Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 17, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 0.94% or 47.437pts to 5003.82 (day range: 5051.3 – 4979.2) on Monday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 5211) and below its 50d MA (@ 5163). 21% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 28% the previous session) and 44% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 53%).
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against all of its major counterparts on Monday. On the economic data front, the US Empire State manufacturing index came in at -10.74 in Nov from -11.36 in Oct, economists had been expecting -6.50.

The Euro was under pressure against all of its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone consumer prices were up by 0.1% in October, as expected, from +0.2% a month earlier. According to Rightmove, UK house prices fell by 1.3% in November vs a +0.6% increase in October.

The Australian dollar was lower against most of its major pairs with the exception of the JPY, NZD and EUR.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0686 0.00 -11.67
GBP/USD 1,5202 -0.01 -2.41
USD/JPY 123,19 0.00 2.92
EUR/CHF 1,0791 0.01 -10.18
EUR/JPY 131,6400 0.01 -9.01
EUR/GBP 0,7029 0.00 -9.49
AUD/NZD 1,0927 0.00 4.27
AUD/JPY 87,4000 -0.03 -10.61
EUR/AUD 1,5062 0.03 1.72
USD/CAD 1,3332 0.01 14.72
USD/CHF 1,0098 0.00 1.54
AUD/USD 0,7095 -0.01 -13.21
NZD/USD 0,6493 0.00 -16.72

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – further weakness

The pair has broken below the lower boundary of a bullish channel in place since March and is capped by its moving averages. Then, as long as 1.1495 holds as a resistance (October top), further weakness is likely with 1.0450 as a first target (March low) and 1.0190 (previous overlap) in extension. A third target is set at 0.9850 (horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.1495 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.1730 (August top) and a second one set at 1.2050 (overlap, July 2012 bottom).

 

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: bullish bias above 0.708.

Pivot 0.7080
Our preference Long positions above 0.708 with targets @ 0.715 & 0.717 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.708 look for further downside with 0.704 & 0.7015 as targets.
Comment A support base at 0.708 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

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