Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 25, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.95% or 50.033pts to 5226.39 (day range: 5276.4 – 5226.39) on Tuesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5184) and above its 50d MA (@ 5176). 62% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 72% the previous session) and 64% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 70%).

Australia: The ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index declined 1.2% WoW to 114.5 in the week ended November 22.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was under pressure against all its major counterparts with the exception of the GBP on Tuesday. On the economic data front, U.S. GDP increased 2.1% in the third quarter in-line with economists estimates compared to an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. Personal consumption increased 3% , below the 3.2% estimate compared to 3.2% last quarter. U.S. consumer confidence lowered to 90.4 , below the 99.5 estimate in Nov from a revised 99.1 the month before. Finally the Richmond federal reserve manufacturing survey came in at -3 this month from -1 last month. Economists had been expecting +1.

The Euro was lower against most its major pairs, higher against the GBP. In Europe, German GDP growth was confirmed at +0.3% in 3Q in final estimation, as expected. It was +0.4% in 2Q. German IFO business climate index climbed to 109 in November from 108.2 a month earlier. It was anticipated to stay flat.

The Australian dollar rallied against all of its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0649 0.12 -11.98
GBP/USD 1,5079 -0.30 -3.20
USD/JPY 122,48 -0.29 2.33
EUR/CHF 1,0819 -0.10 -9.94
EUR/JPY 130,4200 -0.18 -9.85
EUR/GBP 0,7062 0.40 -9.07
AUD/NZD 1,1066 0.33 5.59
AUD/JPY 88,7720 0.47 -9.20
EUR/AUD 1,4692 -0.66 -0.78
USD/CAD 1,3310 -0.41 14.53
USD/CHF 1,0160 -0.22 2.17
AUD/USD 0,7248 0.78 -11.34
NZD/USD 0,6550 0.44 -15.99

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

EUR/USD – further weakness

The pair has broken below the lower boundary of a bullish channel in place since March and is capped by its moving averages. Then, as long as 1.1495 holds as a resistance (October top), further weakness is likely with 1.0450 as a first target (March low) and 1.0190 (previous overlap) in extension. A third target is set at 0.9850 (horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 1.1495 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 1.1730 (August top) and a second one set at 1.2050 (overlap, July 2012 bottom).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

Pivot 0.7180
Our preference Long positions above 0.718 with targets @ 0.727 & 0.7295 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.718 look for further downside with 0.715 & 0.7115 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

 

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