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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 26, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index declined 0.63% or 32.708pts to 5193.68 (day range: 5231.2 – 5192.1) on Wednesday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5177) and above its 50d MA (@ 5178). 57% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 62% the previous session) and 60% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 64%). Trading volume on the index was high, 49.7% above the 3 months average.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against all its major counterparts with the exception of the NZD and GBP on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications fell 3.2% last week compared to a 6.2% increase the week before. Personal Income increased 0.4% MoM in Oct from a revised increase of 0.2% the month before. Personal spending increased 0.1% in Oct, below the 0.3% expected. Durable goods new orders increased 3% in Oct from a revised decline of 0.8% in Sept (+1.7% estimate). US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 260K for the week ending Nov 21 compared to a revised 272K the week before. Economists were expecting 270K. Continuing Claims lowered to 2207K in the week ending Nov 14 from a revised 2173K the week before. Markit US Composite PMI increased to 56.1 this month from 55 in Oct. New home sales rebounded to 495K in Oct, below the 500K estimate compared to a revised 447K last month. Finally, the university of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined to 91.3 this month from 93.1 in Oct, slightly above the 93.1 estimate. The U.S. equity markets will be closed on Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Euro was under pressure against all of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF. In Europe, French consumer confidence index was flat at 96 in November (95 expected).

The Australian dollar was mixed against all of its major pairs.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0617 -0.24 -12.24
GBP/USD 1,5125 0.27 -2.90
USD/JPY 122,73 0.17 2.55
EUR/CHF 1,0851 0.27 -9.68
EUR/JPY 130,3100 -0.07 -9.92
EUR/GBP 0,7020 -0.52 -9.61
AUD/NZD 1,1029 -0.35 5.24
AUD/JPY 89,0530 0.20 -8.91
EUR/AUD 1,4633 -0.25 -1.19
USD/CAD 1,3297 -0.07 14.43
USD/CHF 1,0220 0.51 2.78
AUD/USD 0,7256 -0.01 -11.24
NZD/USD 0,6578 0.35 -15.63

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

GBP/JPY – further weakness
The pair is posting a pull back but stands below the resistance at 191. Moreover, the daily RSI is reversing down and stands below its neutrality area. Then, as long as 191 holds as a resistance, targets on the downside are set at 179.40 at first (horizontal support) and at 175 in extension. A third target is set at 169.50 (strong horizontal support). Only a rebound above the resistance at 191 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at 196 (June top) and a second one set at 201.60 (Fibonacci projection).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot 0.7215
Our preference Long positions above 0.7215 with targets @ 0.7295 & 0.732 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7215 look for further downside with 0.718 & 0.715 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

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