Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 27, 2015

Market Comment

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.33% or 17.016pts to 5210.7 (day range: 5253.6 – 5185.8) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5174) and above its 50d MA (@ 5179).

Australia’s private capital expenditure dropped 9.2% YoY in 3Q vs -4.4% in 2Q, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against all its major counterparts with the exception of the JPY on Thursday. The U.S. Equity markets were closed on Thursday to observe Thanksgiving.

The Euro was mixed against all of its major pairs. In Europe, euro zone M3 money supply growth was 5.3% in October from +4.9% a month earlier. It was expected to grow at the same pace MoM.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major pairs.

Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0608 -0.15 -12.32
GBP/USD 1,5100 -0.19 -3.06
USD/JPY 122,58 -0.10 2.41
EUR/CHF 1,0859 0.02 -9.61
EUR/JPY 130,0300 -0.25 -10.12
EUR/GBP 0,7025 0.04 -9.55
AUD/NZD 1,0999 -0.20 4.95
AUD/JPY 88,6320 -0.38 -9.33
EUR/AUD 1,4670 0.15 -0.92
USD/CAD 1,3291 0.01 14.37
USD/CHF 1,0237 0.18 2.96
AUD/USD 0,7230 -0.30 -11.56
NZD/USD 0,6574 -0.06 -15.69

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

USD/JPY – the upside prevails

The pair has broken above a ST declining trend line and rmains supported by its rising moving averages. Further advance is therefore likely with a first target set at 126 (June top). A break above this threshold would call for further bounce towards 127.70 and towards 130 in extension (horizontal resistances). Only a break below the horizontal support at 119.80 would turn the outlook to bearish with a first alternative target set at 118 (horizontal support and October bottom) and a second one set at 116 (December bottom).

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot 0.7265
Our preference Short positions below 0.7265 with targets @ 0.7205 & 0.718 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.7265 look for further upside with 0.7285 & 0.732 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

 

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