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Morning Dealing Room Technical Report

November 30, 2015

Market Comment

Australia
The S&P/ASX 200 index decreased 0.16% or 8.113pts to 5202.58 (day range: 5258.6 – 5195.4) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 5172) and above its 50d MA (@ 5180). 57% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 58% the previous session) and 63% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 61%).
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was higher against all its major counterparts on Friday. There was no economic data reported in the U.S. on Friday. Markets closed early due to the Thanksgiving day after holiday.

The Euro was higher against all of its major pairs with the exception of the USD and HKD. In Europe, euro zone consumer confidence index was -5.9 in final estimation for November from -6 in first one and -7.6 in October. Germany GfK consumer confidence index climbed to 9.3 for December from 9.4 in November. It was expected to be 9.2. UK GDP growth was confirmed at +0.5% for 3Q vs +0.7% in 2Q.

The Australian dollar was lower against most of its major pairs. Higher against the CHF, CAD and NZD.
Last %1D %YTD
EUR/USD 1,0593 -0.16 -12.44
GBP/USD 1,5043 -0.39 -3.43
USD/JPY 122,85 0.22 2.64
EUR/CHF 1,0903 0.39 -9.24
EUR/JPY 130,1300 0.06 -10.04
EUR/GBP 0,7042 0.23 -9.32
AUD/NZD 1,1008 0.11 5.04
AUD/JPY 88,3650 -0.24 -9.61
EUR/AUD 1,4727 0.29 -0.54
USD/CAD 1,3368 0.55 15.02
USD/CHF 1,0294 0.56 3.52
AUD/USD 0,7193 -0.44 -12.01
NZD/USD 0,6534 -0.56 -16.20

Currency Updates:

Medium Term Strategy: Forex Pair of the day

AUD/USD – under pressure
The pair is posting a rebound but stands below the strong horizontal resistance at 0.7530 and remains capped by the 200-days moving average. As a consequence, further weakness is expected with a first target at 0.69 (September bottom) and a second one set at 0.6650. A third target is set at 0.6350 (horizontal support). Only a rebound above the strong horizontal resistance at 0.7530 would turn the outlook to bullish with a first alternative target set at the previous overlap at 0.7805 and a second one set at May top at 0.8165.

Intraday Technical Strategy

AUD/USD Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot 0.7220
Our preference Short positions below 0.722 with targets @ 0.718 & 0.715 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.722 look for further upside with 0.724 & 0.726 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

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